Quote:
Originally Posted by I am Al
I'm not a SME in governance or physics. I also don't have experience applying Newtonian models to human behavior, but I do have some experience where people have tried to apply other physical models to human behavior. IMO, it doesn't work the way analysts want them to.
Just for context, analysts use models because the real thing is too complex to deal with. Since the model is a simplified version of the real thing, it's based on assumptions and constraints. Models do well predicting stable conditions that operate within the bounds of the assumptions and constraints, but tend to fall apart when conditions exceed those boundaries.
When the SHTF, there's a tipping point and the follow on behaviors. From my experience, the physical models haven't done a great job identifying the tipping points or predicting follow up behavior. People behave irrationally. Under the same circumstances the exact same group might behave one way one time and completely different the next. With people, a lot hinges on the leadership.
Just my opinion, physical models can help give some insight when they stay within the bounds of the model, but don't do well with erratic behaviors.
In a similar vein, I heard Warren Buffet talking about long term investing in an interview the other day. He said he's never been able to predict erratic behavior in the market (just another form of human behavior). He thinks the best predictor of organizational success is strong leadership and a long term track records of success through good times and bad. I think simple models like that are better predictors of outcomes. Not sure at the ghetto level, but it seems to me Warren's model could apply to the probability of success setting up governments in Iran and Afghanistan, too.
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I hear what you're saying about simplicity.
For me, I'm stuck around the idea of insufficient governance(sovereign state public infrastructure & security combined with excessive levels of corruption) combined with exceptionally high population density.
Something akin to a point of no return where a persistent "sovereign governance black hole" develops.