The UK appears to have been hit worse GDP wise than any other major nation.
A 2020 full-year GDP decline of circa 10%.
This translates into:
far lower tax take for the UK this year
far higher frictional costs due to Covid-19 response
far higher pressure on existing defence having to support Covid-19 response out of existing defence budget
Compounding the above is the ongoing "output gap" difference between post covid-19 and no covid-19.
Recovering that gap in output is going to be a huge problem for the UK, resulting in some tough choices.
And what makes it even worse is the cash cow called The City(London's Wall Street) is in the middle of getting kneecapped by the EU to steal that cash cow.
Choices that will include delays or even complete deferments of UK requirements to maintain the semblance of a former superpower.
By 2025 and no later than 2030 I would expect to hear very serious rumblings about UK credibility as a permanent member with veto power on the UN security council.
UK credibility is going to be strongly questioned.
India would be the logical protagonist.
With the Pakistani bunny boiler clown car not far behind that will never get in, but using their superpower of turning everything they touch to sh!t to great effect.
The UK is the canary to the US coalmine.
And our shared adversaries are watching with gleeful anticipation at the comeuppance of the UK.
|