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Originally Posted by G
Interesting questions CoLawman
I'll take the liberty of adding another and will then settle back and wait for the discussion to happen:
Would it make any difference to the GWOT if OBL was either 1, 2 or 3 above?
Take care...
G
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I believe that it will momentous when OBL is captured or killed. Without him the institution does not exist. Sure Zarwahiri will need to be taken care of but OBL is the Institution. He is the Money man, the inspiration, the logistician, and most important, the patriarch of AQ.
He is surely the head of the snake, and the beheading kills the snake. Yes there will be others who attempt to take the reins using him as a martyr, but with nowhere near the success.
Getting a little of subject, the same can be said for Zarquawi. His demise is a crippling blow to the insurgency in Iraq. Again I understand the individual cells that have been called sleeper cells act independent of the leadership. But 9/11 tells us differently. The entire network was enabled and reliant upon OBL to be successful. Read the evidence against OBL in his indictment for 9/11 to understand this point.
Now back to the original question? Why have we not heard from OBL? In fact, why have we not heard from him even though Dr. Zarwahiri stated we would hear from him?
I know a little about fugitives and the accompanying psycholigical impact brought about by being the hunted. It takes a physiological toll on them brought about by psychological stimulus known as STRESS. Look at how debilitating Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome can effect a person. This guy, at a minimum, is delusional in his distrust of everyone (i.e. Hitler) His cardio system is negatively impacted as is his immune system. Put it all together and this is not a healthy 40 some year old. I believe the lack of any communication from him suggests one of the three previous listed possibilities. Just my two cents.
Thoughts ?
Oops was composing and JATX and TS posted while I was composing. Will think about what TS said.