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Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc
Are you confused? Africa investing in China as FDI? Not happening. China engaging Africa? Happening. There is a difference. You seem to think China is a Gap state - its not anymore. Africa is a Gap continent (with exceptions noted). If China wants to engage Sudan, Somalia, etc. - more power to them. It will be interesting to see how China manages the associated security issues. As China accepts the new rules they will have to accept from the Core, those rules should trickle down to Africa. It will take forever that way, but it will happen.
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You need to stop looking under the bed for the boogeyman. There isn't one big one, there are a lot of little ones. China is on the right track - don't try to derail them. They are trying to join.
Unchecked growth causes problems. They will hit their own snag and have to take a step back.
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NDD. Sorry, not running off on this one.
Confused? I hope so. I don't have a rosy picture.
FDI? Your original question: “Where will they have to go to get the money”. All my answers pertained to import/export. Given China’s current status FDI should be next to impossible to achieve hence their focus on trade. Obviously some nations will turn a blind eye, they already have. The IBM deal was a perfect example; it was backed not only by Chinese banks but EU and American banks. Clearly China does not meet IMF and WTO requirements, but that did not deter investors. Today, Bank of America announced it is considering a substantial investment in a large Chinese Bank in the range of $14B. This doesn't concern you?
I am not looking for the “boogeyman” as you put it. In fact, it is the opposite. The more I try and disprove my fears, the more questions I find. I started with the Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST) trying to answer the simple question: Why is Condi pushing this? What is so important about this Treaty that addresses our “National Security”?
I looked at it from every conceivable angle and determined its greatest impact was to trade; the economy. Everything pointed to China. I started reviewing their trade agreements: with who and when. Timing on some of these agreements was the next thing that hit me. One deal that stood out occured Feb 2; China loaned Russia $6B which was speculated to be a loan to obtain leverage. Russia coincidentally then pays off it’s debt with the IMF which wasn’t due until 2008. What did Russia do next? Sign agreements with Iran and Syria. Convenient? Coincidental? Reading too much into it? Hedging their bets as you put it?
I don’t expect a direct Military war with China. I do expect economic strangulation, that is what I mean by "encircling the USA". I don't doubt China would use their Military against weaker trading partners.
I agree China will falter. The question is how hard, how far will the reverberations be felt and how will they react. I see a lot of parallels to the market today and the status of globalisation in 1914.
my .02