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**Airbornelawyer** · 03-30-2005, 13:29

China is not exactly new to Africa. Anyone remember Admiral Cheng Ho (Zheng He in pinyin)? The Mings intended to expand their dynasty south and west, turning the Indian Ocean into a Chinese lake. But internal problems - mainly the cost of the admiral's expeditions - and the ever-present threat from the north caused the Mings to abandon these plans.

More recently, while the US and its allies were busy trying to contain Soviet communist expansion in Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, we also "basically abandoned Africa to its fate." Africa was a problem for the colonial powers, increasing becoming the former colonial masters - France, the UK, Belgium and Portugal. US interests were minimal, and mainly amounted to aiding these European countries (but not to maintain their empires) and occasionally countering Soviet and Cuban inroads. China viewed Africa as an opportunity then, and moved to sell arms and build up friendly Maoist groups. China's successes in building a network of African clients were, shall we say, less than stellar. A number of countries accepted Chinese arms and Chinese advisors, notably Tanzania (where Nyerere also fiddled with Chinese ideology and his own version of the Great Leap Forward), but as soon as a better offer came along, jumped ship to either the Soviets or the West. China's successes mirrored those in East Asia, where the major powers became Soviet or US allies/clients while China settled for Burma and Laos. Or Europe, where China's great success was Albania, and even Albania abandoned them after Mao.

The "major" powers in Africa - South Africa, Nigeria, Congo/Zaire, Ethiopia - were either Soviet or Western allies.

China settled for a string of South Asian and Middle East states which would never be reliable allies or share China's ideology but would at least buy their weapons, even while preferring US, Soviet, French or other European suppliers - mainly Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran and Iraq.

In the 1990s, China shifted from ideological to economic motives for its arms sales, though profits aren't necessarily the main component - building a better technological base for its arms production is also a major factor. And who have been China's main customers in the 10-15 years? Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran and Sri Lanka:

Burma (Myanmar): 150 Type YW-531/Type-85 APCs (1993); 50 Type-69-II MBTs (1993); 50 Type-63 light tanks (1993); 30 Type-63 107mm MRLs (1993); 4 Type-311 fire control radars, for use with 24 Type-74 37mm AA guns (1993); 12 F-7M fighter aircraft (1998-99); 36 PL-2A SRAAMs (1993) and 36 PL-5B SRAAMs (1998-99), for use with the F-7Ms; 6 Houxin Class FAC(M) (1995-97); 48 C-801K/CSS-N-4 Sardine air-launched anti-ship missiles, for Houxin Class FAC(M)s (1995-97); 12 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainer aircraft (1999)
Bangladesh: 5 Type-653 ARVs (1993); 1 T-43 Class minesweeper (1994); 1 Haizhui Class patrol craft (1995); 18 Type-59-1 130mm towed guns (1996); 4 F-7B fighter aircraft (1999-2000); 21 HN-5A portable SAMs and 114 RED ARROW-8 ATGMs (2001).
Pakistan: 750 QW-1 Vanguard (Anza-2) MANPADS (1994-2003); 20 Type-653 ARV (1995); 36 LY-60 SAMs and 3 LL-1 fire control radars for modernized Tariq (Amazon) Class frigates (1996-97); 4 Y-12 transport aircraft (1996-97); 36 LY-60 SAMs and 3 LL-1 fire control radars for modernized Tariq (Amazon) Class frigates (1996-97); 16 C-802K/CSS-N-8 Saccade anti-ship missiles and 2 Type-347G fire control radars for Jalalat Class FACs (1997-99); 57 F-7PG fighter aircraft, including 6-9 trainer versions (2001-03); 6 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainer aircraft (2003).
Iran: Between 1996 and 1999, Iran took delivery of 80 C-802/CSS-N-8 Saccade anti-ship missiles for its Kaman Class (Combattante-2 Type) FAC and 24 C-801K/CSS-N-4 Sardine air-launched anti-ship missiles. In 1996, it received 5 F-7M fighter aircraft; 14 Y-7 transport aircraft were ordered in 1996, of which 8 appear to have been delivered, with the rest expected in 2005-06; 9 Y-12 transport aircraft were delivered in 1994-9; in 2002-03, Iran received 35 FL-6 anti-ship missiles, a copy of the Italian Sea Killer ASM for use on Iran's SH-3D helicopters.
Sri Lanka: 1 Yuhai/Wuhu-A Class landing ship (1995); 3 Haizhui Class patrol craft (1996); 1 Haiqing Class patrol craft (1996); 3 Shanghai Class patrol craft (1998); 2 Lushun class patrol craft (1998); 36 Type-66 152mm towed guns (1999); 10 CJ-6 trainer aircraft (2000); 6 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainer aircraft (2001)

From a military perspective, it would seem China's main focus in these deals is containing India, with garnering hard currency a second priority.

China's other major deals in this period also have a regional/economic focus. Two deals were inked with Kuwait: a 1998 deal, with delivery in 2000-01, for 27 PZL-45 155mm SP guns, 1 Type-653 ARV, 4 Type YW-531/Type-85 APCs, and 27 PCZ-45 ALVs; and a 2001 deal, with delivery in 2002-03, for 24 PZL-45s, 1 Type-653, 4 Type YW-531/Type-85s, and 24 PCZ-45s. Thailand received 1 Similan Class support ship (1996) and 28 C-801/CSS-N-4 Sardine anti-ship missiles (2000). Neither Kuwait or Thailand, though, is likely to choose China over the US in a conflict.

In Africa, Arab North Africa was a better market than Sub-Saharan Africa, though both pale in comparison with Asia. Between 2000 and 2002, Algeria took delivery of 24 C-802/CSS-N-8 Saccade anti-ship missiles for its Djebel Chinoise Class FACs. Between 2001 and 2004, Egypt received 80 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainers. Sudan got 6 F-7M fighters in 1997 and Tunisia received 3 Haizhui Class patrol craft in 1994.

As for Sub-Saharan Africa:

Eritrea: 4 Y-12 transport aircraft (1994).
Kenya: 9 Y-12s (1997).
Mali: 2 Z-9B (AS-365/AS-565) helicopters (2000).
Mauritania: 2 Y-12s (1994-95) and 1 Y-7 transport (1997).
Namibia: 2 Y-12s (1997) and 4 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainers (2001).
Sierra Leone: 1 Haizhui Class patrol craft (1997).
Tanzania: 2 Y-12s (1994).
Zambia: 3 Y-12s (1996) and 8 K-8s (2000)

I don't have data for small arms transfers, where China has had somewhat more success since its lower tech weapons are still cheap and reliable.

In Africa today, China seems to be falling into the same pattern as before and elsewhere. It may be looking for oil in Angola and building roads in Rwanda, but it does not have the impact or clout of Western nations. The countries where it is gaining the most influence are, once again, rogue states that few others will deal with - Sudan and Zimbabwe.

On the other side of the equation, I should note that the United States has not abandoned Africa, nor has it any intention to. That same impetus that is pushing China to expand its efforts in Africa - the need for oil and minerals - is also keeping the US engaged there. And we have strategic interests, especially in the Sahara and the Horn of Africa, that China does not.

Among the top suppliers of crude oil to the United States, Nigeria ranks 5th and Angola ranks 7th. We are by far Angola's largest export partner (the trade deficit we run with Angola doesn't seem to bother anyone though). Gabon ranks 14th, but we receive over half of Gabon's production. Algeria is 15th (about 90% of Algeria's production goes to Western Europe, mainly Italy and France). We are also heavily involved in developing Equatorial Guinea's oil industry, as well as others on the Gulf of Guinea, but none of these are as important as Nigeria, Angola, Gabon and Algeria.

Our national security interests keep us focused on those states where AQ and other Islamist terrorists have made inroads or coudl affect us - Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Sudan, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Niger, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt - but we are also involved elsewhere.

The main FMS recipients over the past few years include Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and, until 2001, Zimbabwe. Main Foreign Military Financing Program recipients are Nigeria, South Africa, Botswana, Kenya and Senegal. For commercial sales, Nigeria, South Africa and Botswana are the main buyers. Top IMET recipients are Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa. The leaders for ACRI (now ACOTA) training has been Senegal, Uganda, Malawi, Mali, Ghana, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire and Kenya.

As a theater of American interest, Africa certainly pales in comparison with the Middle East and East Asia, and is behind Latam and Eastern Europe, but we are far from abandoning it to the Chinese or anyone.

03-30-2005, 13:29	#218
Airbornelawyer Moderator Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 1,953	China is not exactly new to Africa. Anyone remember Admiral Cheng Ho (Zheng He in pinyin)? The Mings intended to expand their dynasty south and west, turning the Indian Ocean into a Chinese lake. But internal problems - mainly the cost of the admiral's expeditions - and the ever-present threat from the north caused the Mings to abandon these plans. More recently, while the US and its allies were busy trying to contain Soviet communist expansion in Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, we also "basically abandoned Africa to its fate." Africa was a problem for the colonial powers, increasing becoming the former colonial masters - France, the UK, Belgium and Portugal. US interests were minimal, and mainly amounted to aiding these European countries (but not to maintain their empires) and occasionally countering Soviet and Cuban inroads. China viewed Africa as an opportunity then, and moved to sell arms and build up friendly Maoist groups. China's successes in building a network of African clients were, shall we say, less than stellar. A number of countries accepted Chinese arms and Chinese advisors, notably Tanzania (where Nyerere also fiddled with Chinese ideology and his own version of the Great Leap Forward), but as soon as a better offer came along, jumped ship to either the Soviets or the West. China's successes mirrored those in East Asia, where the major powers became Soviet or US allies/clients while China settled for Burma and Laos. Or Europe, where China's great success was Albania, and even Albania abandoned them after Mao. The "major" powers in Africa - South Africa, Nigeria, Congo/Zaire, Ethiopia - were either Soviet or Western allies. China settled for a string of South Asian and Middle East states which would never be reliable allies or share China's ideology but would at least buy their weapons, even while preferring US, Soviet, French or other European suppliers - mainly Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran and Iraq. In the 1990s, China shifted from ideological to economic motives for its arms sales, though profits aren't necessarily the main component - building a better technological base for its arms production is also a major factor. And who have been China's main customers in the 10-15 years? Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran and Sri Lanka: Burma (Myanmar): 150 Type YW-531/Type-85 APCs (1993); 50 Type-69-II MBTs (1993); 50 Type-63 light tanks (1993); 30 Type-63 107mm MRLs (1993); 4 Type-311 fire control radars, for use with 24 Type-74 37mm AA guns (1993); 12 F-7M fighter aircraft (1998-99); 36 PL-2A SRAAMs (1993) and 36 PL-5B SRAAMs (1998-99), for use with the F-7Ms; 6 Houxin Class FAC(M) (1995-97); 48 C-801K/CSS-N-4 Sardine air-launched anti-ship missiles, for Houxin Class FAC(M)s (1995-97); 12 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainer aircraft (1999) Bangladesh: 5 Type-653 ARVs (1993); 1 T-43 Class minesweeper (1994); 1 Haizhui Class patrol craft (1995); 18 Type-59-1 130mm towed guns (1996); 4 F-7B fighter aircraft (1999-2000); 21 HN-5A portable SAMs and 114 RED ARROW-8 ATGMs (2001). Pakistan: 750 QW-1 Vanguard (Anza-2) MANPADS (1994-2003); 20 Type-653 ARV (1995); 36 LY-60 SAMs and 3 LL-1 fire control radars for modernized Tariq (Amazon) Class frigates (1996-97); 4 Y-12 transport aircraft (1996-97); 36 LY-60 SAMs and 3 LL-1 fire control radars for modernized Tariq (Amazon) Class frigates (1996-97); 16 C-802K/CSS-N-8 Saccade anti-ship missiles and 2 Type-347G fire control radars for Jalalat Class FACs (1997-99); 57 F-7PG fighter aircraft, including 6-9 trainer versions (2001-03); 6 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainer aircraft (2003). Iran: Between 1996 and 1999, Iran took delivery of 80 C-802/CSS-N-8 Saccade anti-ship missiles for its Kaman Class (Combattante-2 Type) FAC and 24 C-801K/CSS-N-4 Sardine air-launched anti-ship missiles. In 1996, it received 5 F-7M fighter aircraft; 14 Y-7 transport aircraft were ordered in 1996, of which 8 appear to have been delivered, with the rest expected in 2005-06; 9 Y-12 transport aircraft were delivered in 1994-9; in 2002-03, Iran received 35 FL-6 anti-ship missiles, a copy of the Italian Sea Killer ASM for use on Iran's SH-3D helicopters. Sri Lanka: 1 Yuhai/Wuhu-A Class landing ship (1995); 3 Haizhui Class patrol craft (1996); 1 Haiqing Class patrol craft (1996); 3 Shanghai Class patrol craft (1998); 2 Lushun class patrol craft (1998); 36 Type-66 152mm towed guns (1999); 10 CJ-6 trainer aircraft (2000); 6 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainer aircraft (2001) From a military perspective, it would seem China's main focus in these deals is containing India, with garnering hard currency a second priority. China's other major deals in this period also have a regional/economic focus. Two deals were inked with Kuwait: a 1998 deal, with delivery in 2000-01, for 27 PZL-45 155mm SP guns, 1 Type-653 ARV, 4 Type YW-531/Type-85 APCs, and 27 PCZ-45 ALVs; and a 2001 deal, with delivery in 2002-03, for 24 PZL-45s, 1 Type-653, 4 Type YW-531/Type-85s, and 24 PCZ-45s. Thailand received 1 Similan Class support ship (1996) and 28 C-801/CSS-N-4 Sardine anti-ship missiles (2000). Neither Kuwait or Thailand, though, is likely to choose China over the US in a conflict. In Africa, Arab North Africa was a better market than Sub-Saharan Africa, though both pale in comparison with Asia. Between 2000 and 2002, Algeria took delivery of 24 C-802/CSS-N-8 Saccade anti-ship missiles for its Djebel Chinoise Class FACs. Between 2001 and 2004, Egypt received 80 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainers. Sudan got 6 F-7M fighters in 1997 and Tunisia received 3 Haizhui Class patrol craft in 1994. As for Sub-Saharan Africa: Eritrea: 4 Y-12 transport aircraft (1994). Kenya: 9 Y-12s (1997). Mali: 2 Z-9B (AS-365/AS-565) helicopters (2000). Mauritania: 2 Y-12s (1994-95) and 1 Y-7 transport (1997). Namibia: 2 Y-12s (1997) and 4 K-8 Karakorum-8 jet trainers (2001). Sierra Leone: 1 Haizhui Class patrol craft (1997). Tanzania: 2 Y-12s (1994). Zambia: 3 Y-12s (1996) and 8 K-8s (2000) I don't have data for small arms transfers, where China has had somewhat more success since its lower tech weapons are still cheap and reliable. In Africa today, China seems to be falling into the same pattern as before and elsewhere. It may be looking for oil in Angola and building roads in Rwanda, but it does not have the impact or clout of Western nations. The countries where it is gaining the most influence are, once again, rogue states that few others will deal with - Sudan and Zimbabwe. On the other side of the equation, I should note that the United States has not abandoned Africa, nor has it any intention to. That same impetus that is pushing China to expand its efforts in Africa - the need for oil and minerals - is also keeping the US engaged there. And we have strategic interests, especially in the Sahara and the Horn of Africa, that China does not. Among the top suppliers of crude oil to the United States, Nigeria ranks 5th and Angola ranks 7th. We are by far Angola's largest export partner (the trade deficit we run with Angola doesn't seem to bother anyone though). Gabon ranks 14th, but we receive over half of Gabon's production. Algeria is 15th (about 90% of Algeria's production goes to Western Europe, mainly Italy and France). We are also heavily involved in developing Equatorial Guinea's oil industry, as well as others on the Gulf of Guinea, but none of these are as important as Nigeria, Angola, Gabon and Algeria. Our national security interests keep us focused on those states where AQ and other Islamist terrorists have made inroads or coudl affect us - Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Sudan, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Niger, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt - but we are also involved elsewhere. The main FMS recipients over the past few years include Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and, until 2001, Zimbabwe. Main Foreign Military Financing Program recipients are Nigeria, South Africa, Botswana, Kenya and Senegal. For commercial sales, Nigeria, South Africa and Botswana are the main buyers. Top IMET recipients are Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa. The leaders for ACRI (now ACOTA) training has been Senegal, Uganda, Malawi, Mali, Ghana, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire and Kenya. As a theater of American interest, Africa certainly pales in comparison with the Middle East and East Asia, and is behind Latam and Eastern Europe, but we are far from abandoning it to the Chinese or anyone.
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