"Ready" and "willing" aren't the same thing, but I take your point. However, even on the latter I'm not so sure I agree. Hizbullah is not like a Lebanese SCIRI, willing to store their weapons and participate politically, but more like a Lebanese Hamas. The "struggle" is their raison d'etre. Nasrallah supported Sadr, not Sistani (though he tried to mend some fences after Sadr's failure).
Of course, the Lebanese Army might not take on Hizbullah, despite what its soldiers are itching for. A worst case scenario for us is one that, unfortunately, might have a certain attraction for Lebanese political leaders. That is to make a deal with Hizbullah so they can use them in exactly the same way Syria has used them, as a proxy to keep pressure on Israel.
However, Syria's motive in this regard was two-fold: (i) to preserve the Arab struggle against Israel as the sine qua non of pan-Arabism, which is the basis of Ba'athist political philosophy, and (ii) to keep up pressure on Israel in the hopes of getting the Golan Heights back.
As to the former, I don't know of a major Lebanese political figure who cares about pan-Arabism. With Saddam Hussein's fall, Syria's Ba'athists are about the only pan-Arabists left. Still, the traditional divert-your-people's-attention-away-from-domestic-problems-by-focusing-on-Israel tactic of Arab leaders, while weaker today, has its attractions, so some Lebanese might favor keeping Hizbullah around for that purpose.
As to the latter, the Lebanese don't care about the Golan Heights. I am also not sure if many Lebanese care about the Shebaa Farms, the manufactured claim to justify making Hizbullah's continued fight with Israel a Lebanese issue. I understand Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader, has stated that he thinks the Shebaa Farms is a Syrian issue unless the Syrians can prove otherwise.
A question for us is whether we should tolerate a Lebanese deal with Hizbullah. Israel allows the PA to play the same game with Hamas, but takes on (and takes out) Hamas when necessary. Hamas has only incidentally killed Americans, but as noted Hizbullah has killed more Americans than any other terrorist group except AQ. We have a personal stake in dealing with Hizbullah, regardless of what other Lebanese factions desire.
|