There may be another component to this to factor in. Food.
The West may believe in man made global warming, but I believe the Chinese and Russians hold a different view...
https://phys.org/news/2006-08-russia...global-cooling.
htmlhttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3022136/china-scientists-warn-global-cooling-trick-natures-sleeve
If some projections are correct, by 2030 there will be problems with crop zones in China, Russia, Australia, Canada and the US.
Ukraine is a "Bread Basket" You may note that the Chinese are buying up food assets world wide; Africa and the US.
For the Russians, Ukraine is a lot more existential for them then for us.
I think current Russian posturing by parking ships over underseas cables and incursions into Swedish airspace with drones etc is them telling us how serious this is to them.
They told us from Day 1 when the Soviet Union collapsed that they didn't want Ukraine in NATO and as far as I can tell, Germany and France still agree with them.