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InTheBlack · 03-22-2020, 02:04

They try to estimate mortality by deaths on a given day vs number of cases on the day of infection (in the past). They used 14 days in the past. The number "earlier" in time is over 20%, and decays steadily towards the WHO cumulative mortality rate of 5.6%

So my takaway is that we might see a huge mortality rate pretty soon. Hopefully the government will be ahead of that and explain this sort of curve so its not a surprise.

Better yet, if they can demonstrate the upwards curve is leading to that rate. Unless the public changes its behavior.

Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection
David Baud et al
12MAR20 -- so maybe a bit dated

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext

EDIT: a followup post by the guy Mugwump recommended recently touches on the same "convergence" theme:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

SNIP
The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

What I did was look at how both evolve over time. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

This is what you see in the data. China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu.

It is made up of two completely different realities though: Hubei and the rest of China.

Hubei’s fatality rate will probably converge towards 4.8%. Meanwhile, for the rest of China, it will likely converge to ~0.9%: SNIP

Edit again: see his Chart 12; it matches the high initial death rate of the first article. So - the system gets overwhelmed very very very early.

03-22-2020, 02:04	#625
InTheBlack BANNED USER Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 249	They try to estimate mortality by deaths on a given day vs number of cases on the day of infection (in the past). They used 14 days in the past. The number "earlier" in time is over 20%, and decays steadily towards the WHO cumulative mortality rate of 5.6% So my takaway is that we might see a huge mortality rate pretty soon. Hopefully the government will be ahead of that and explain this sort of curve so its not a surprise. Better yet, if they can demonstrate the upwards curve is leading to that rate. Unless the public changes its behavior. Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection David Baud et al 12MAR20 -- so maybe a bit dated https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext EDIT: a followup post by the guy Mugwump recommended recently touches on the same "convergence" theme: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca SNIP The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries. What I did was look at how both evolve over time. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be. This is what you see in the data. China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu. It is made up of two completely different realities though: Hubei and the rest of China. Hubei’s fatality rate will probably converge towards 4.8%. Meanwhile, for the rest of China, it will likely converge to ~0.9%: SNIP Edit again: see his Chart 12; it matches the high initial death rate of the first article. So - the system gets overwhelmed very very very early. Last edited by InTheBlack; 03-22-2020 at 02:44.
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