[mugwump]

The epidemiology of this virus is established. ROK answered any remaining questions with their extensive testing program. Fear is not getting ahead of the data. It’s being driven by it.

Best case scenario is 1% CFR and that requires an intact HC system. So, 10x worse than a bad seasonal flu. ROK, Taiwan, Singapore will achieve that unless the wheels fall off. The rest of the world, no hope of a CFR that low.

330,000,000 * 40% attack rate * 1% CFR = 1,320,000 deaths in the US.

Note that is the lowest attack rate (40%-70% per Harvard health, 55% per Johns Hopkins, 60% in UK and Germany for their modeling) and the best case CFR. I think we'll see double that number of deaths.

Wuhan CFR was about 5.8%. Italy is in chaos and is 8.5% but their denominator is suspect and it’s probably 5%. Spain, France will follow that trend. Germany and the UK are unknowns.

Taiwan, Hong king, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Phillipines are all in warm latitudes and they are seeing cases. Don’t hang your hat on warm weather to stop this.

That said, I expect a late May to mid June peak for this wave. Summer lull by August, then a larger main peak in late November. That will be the big one as NPI measures are seen to be too tough and fatigue sets in. Then a final smaller wave March April 2021. Then small bumps like aftershocks.

This will be an 18 month acute phase, then endemic thereafter. Combined flu/covid annual CFR will be 0.4ish, four times a historical bad flu year. We'll need more ICU beds.

There is no Chinese vaccine. This started in late October and lied about it, it would be shocking if they didn’t have multiple candidates in play. But they have nothing. They’d tout it, social media leaks would report it, satellite would see preps for distribution.

France/Germany/UK are seeing riots and steamroll thefts of liquor and food now with their multicultural brethren. Imagine last-mile vaccine deployment in that environment.

That Nature article saying “natural virus” is CCP propaganda. I believe this was released due to negligence but I also believe it’s the result of enhancement research. Can’t be proven either way and that’s a hard fact unless someone talks.

We will have no vaccine that mere mortals will see for 18 months. Antiviral therapy is slightly better track, but if chloroquine/zinc doesn't work the other candidates are looking at serious supply chain constraints.

I too fear for the economy, imposition of unconstitutional civil “management” measures and a host of other issues. But when those gazillion gen Z mouth breathing spring breakers return home...5 day avg incubation, 20 day average course until death, their parents and grandparents will start dying in late April and then the jig will be up.