Quote:
Originally Posted by mugwump
The best case scenario is Korea's 0.7% fatality rate, the lowest in the world. CFR of 0.7 is seven times worse that a bad seasonal flu year.
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Multiplying fatality factor by seasonal flu deaths seems the best way to me.
Trying to use doubling times then seriousness on a spreadsheet, I can't make it match the China progression of numbers.
How does doubling time change when cases are very low? The few infected in a small zone will be exposing the same set of people multiple times, so the R0 would be skewed.
Then with very large numbers you get herd immunity starting and again exposing the same people multiple times.
Wonder if the way doubling time changes is a Logistic Curve sort of equation?