Ro for seasonal flu is slightly over 1. Meaning 1 flu case produces slightly more than q additional case. Covid Ro estimates are all over the map. If you’re using shrine lickers in Iran, it can be 20. In Korea its still estimated to be 2.2, numbers double about every 3.4 days, which is actually not happening, they’re doubling faster.
I’d say Korea is the lab, not that cruise ship. The ship's demographics are too skewed and the situation too artificial. I don’t understand that Slate article. Seasonal flu is rampant in winter when folks are cruising. How many times have you heard of 700 people coming down with the flu on a single ship? I have a friend who cruises continuously post retirement, a 30 day jaunt across the pacific is nothing to him. He’s never heard of more that 2-3 people being treated for the flu. Anecdotal, but smells right.
Folks were terrified of Covid on the Princess and were isolating themselves in their rooms. Food was delivered. Fewer cases should’ve occurred, 700 is a lot. Food borne (fecal) is speculated as well as airborne via some vent shafts.
Korea are testing like mad and finding scads of subclinical cases. Interestingly many have pneumonia on CAT scan but no cough or SOB. Their CFR just edged up from 0.6 to 0.7. Note their med system is overwhelmed now with 2300 waiting for a hospital room or ICU bed.
Fauci is going with <=1 CFR in the US based on Korea. It’d be higher if he was basing estimates on Italy IMO but I guess we’ll see.
Italy looks different from Korea with less testing (but proportionately more than us) and higher deaths and reports of younger ICU patients without underlying disease.
Interesting case descriptions below for the medics.
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