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Originally Posted by Cynic
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This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low).
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Vs Mugwump saying seasonal flu should have produced 6. OTOH if they were confined as on that ship, maybe more ?
It was not an internal quarantine -- what are the details? Did people stay in their rooms & get served meals? & what about linen service? Were the crew the only transmission source? Was the "guest service" crew isolated from the other crew?
Why does this article assert that 705 is low?
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I want to separate the "quantitative" aspect from the "qualitative" for COVID-19. How much more infectious is it than seasonal flu - the end result being more cases that enter the health care system at the lowest level? Is "infectious" simply the R0? What is the seasonal flu R0 range for past years?
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In the 2017-2018 flu season (worst in the last 10 years that we have stats for, this year was baaaad but no data tabulated yet) there were 45M infections (estimated, not confirmed), 810K hospitalizations, and 61k deaths.
While total cases of Covid including asymptomatic/mild may be a WAG, hospitalization numbers are not. Current NEJM and Lancet studies cite 15%-20% of hospitalized covid cases going serious/critical and requiring respiratory support and 90% of those dying.
So in equal numbers of hospitalized covid patients (810k x 15% x 90%) that's 109k projected deaths.
Assuming the same 45M covid patients as 2017-18 seasonal flu, and
20% need hospitalization (currently a WAG but based upon optimistic Chinese stats) and
20% of those need ventilator support (not a WAG)
that's 1.8M patients needing an ICU bed and
if 90% mortality (not a WAG)
that's 1.6M deaths.
So, 61K flu deaths vs 1.6M covid deaths in the same 45M patients.
The WAG in that number is the number of expected hospitalizations.
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