Quote:
Originally Posted by mugwump
The projection below assumes no effective non-pharmacological measures (i.e. whatever they're doing in China, and ultimately here, won’t work), a Ro of 2.5 (which is low in light of current US and Chinese studies) and no significant drop in cases during warm weather (which seems possible from surface infectivity studies).
Attachment 36206 |
The chart does not factor in reduction in rate of increase due to proactive social distancing.
What exactly is the material used to make surgical masks? Wonder if a field expedient would be to use gauze pads which have that woven blue non-stick layer ? Or just the blue woven fabric that is used on beds to keep the patient from touching the sheets directly, and to catch spills? What is that stuff called?
EDIT: followup comment by creator of that chart (dated 27JAN20):
Beyond China
Matt Sterett Feb 10
The model’s early forecasts were, in fact, conservative.
***We actually underestimated the near-term risk***
By a factor of 6x.
Reported figures now tally at >40k infections.
Now, back to our critics.
https://reservereport.substack.com/?no_cover=true
the spreadsheet itself, you can modify presumptions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2146925776