A top journal preprint (undergoing peer review) funded by DARPA and Los Alamos (I’m guessing supercomputer time) has calculated the Ro to be 4.7-6.6. Which is yikes, we're buggered.
We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
The last hope is for the majority of cases to be mild. CIDRAP is guesstimating we're only catching and quarantining 1/3 of the positives flying in, so essentially, it’s here and containment will be difficult. So pray for <1% mortality and not the 5%-I don’t even want to say that researchers are estimating for China.
Gotta go, I have to clear my browser history.