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Originally Posted by InTheBlack
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No, my opinion only, but it hasn't flattened. I suspect transmission has accelerated. Watch what they do, not what they say.
Another 40 million are under draconian lockdown since Friday, they're welding doors shut on apartment tower blocks SE of Beijing, the "stay home from work" order has been extended from feb 10 to feb 20, two new social order laws with the death penalty are on the books (evading quarantine, telling the truth on social media i.e. "fear mongering"), and all ships at sea holding hospital supplies are ordered to return to port.
They are crashing their economy and risking every strategic initiative of the last 10 years: Belt and Road, Loan/Build/Foreclose on strategic African assets, the South China Seas Rodeo Roundup, 2025 tech dominance initiatives, etc. They all require China humming on all cylinders, and they're risking it all.
Add in the fact that the economy is drowning in provincial and corporate debt--denominated in $USD BTW--that most thought required inspired finesse and good luck to get past, they are risking a huge problem by effectively shutting 7 of the worlds 10 largest ports.
Something scares them more.
No other country in the world has the totalitarian will and sheer ruthlessness to effect the measures the Chinese are implementing. They are excising great swaths of their people and economy in an attempt to save whats left. I don't think it's going to work but I sure hope it does. Then again, I also don't think it matters: imagine this virus in India, Nigeria, Mexico.
If you want another line in the sand, the Celestials have granted two highly visible exceptions to the "stay home" order: Foxconn and Tesla. They will be flogging and threatening and cajoling those companies to stay open. If Foxconn resumes iphone production and maintains it for a week, cool--I'm full of shit. Again.
If it can't stay open then you have your answer. Canary. Coal mine.