[mugwump]

This coming weekend (Feb 8/9) will be interesting. When this first started three epidemiological curves of infection rates were predicted from SARS/MERS experience showing optimistic, expected, and worst-case plots of the growth of total cases. Basically, they predicted scenarios when the total number of infections would peak and then flatten and decline. The virus has blown past the optimistic and expected peaks. The pessimistic number should be achieved Thurs/Fri. If we hear of flat numbers this weekend that would be sublime---the disease will taper off in China and contagion pressure will ease. If not, we're looking at pandemic, most likely. Even then, we probably need to wait til the end of of the month to understand what's going to happen here in NA.

There's going to be a long hard look at the Wuhan's Institute of Virology when the dust settles. And, I hope, forensic accounting investigations of the top WHO cats.

Everyone is holding their breath and looking at Lagos, Mumbai, Mexico City.

How dangerous this truly is is all over the map. They need the total number of cases to make that estimate and they just don't have the data (lies, exhaustion, insufficient test supplies, lack of resource). Epidemiologists were totally counting on Hong Kong (considered first-world reliable) to report hard data on the prevalence of mild/asymptomatic cases. They're just not seeing them, at least not yet. So that's disappointing, and a blow to the hopes that this is a mild infection that's only culling the weak.

The fatalities aren't dying quickly, many taking 5-7 days to succumb. This is leading a lot of amateurs (and unsophisticated docs) to say "200 deaths, 12,000 cases, that's <2%--bad but severe-flu bad, not catastrophic." The problem is those 200 folks who died contracted the disease 10-15 days ago, when there were only 4,000 cases. Meaning a 5% death rate. Less good. The people who exhibit symptoms today are going to contribute to fatality stats in a week or so. If you see new cases flatten this weekend while deaths keep increasing, it's expected--within reason.

The bottom line is, no one knows how serious this is. It could be less than 1%, maybe much less if there are lots and lots of mild cases. Or it could be >5%, which would be bad bad bad to the supply chain and heartbreaking on the personal level.

The top three medical supply producers (China, India, Thailand) have halted all exports to conserve supplies for local use. No masks, gowns, IV sets, O2 cannulae...Every time I hear some US health administrator boasting about their preparedness I wince. Hubris. Gods. Eek. STFU

Social distancing remains the only option and it's a legitimate and successful tactic. Avoid all crowds as much as possible. Wash hands like an obsessive-compulsive at an STD clinic. Hand sanitizer. "Gel in, gel out" as the medicos say. Doorknobs/handles, handrails, grocery cart handles, elevator buttons, etc...all are enemies. Use your elbows and shoulders to open doors. Shoes and outerclothes off outside. Don't touch your face. Plan on wanting to stay indoors for extended periods.

Good luck to us all.