Quote:
Originally Posted by Trapper John
So the neo-Fascists, MSM, and the talking heads are all in a tizzy over the POTUS posturing viz-a-viz Putin and Russia. Here's a thought:
Russia, Syria, Iran are the new axis of evil. Donald Trump is positioning to be a reasonable guy (good cop) with Vlad and hard liner with Iran. Why?
He knows that he needs to drive a wedge in the Iran/Russia relationship. Russia wants access to Iran's oil through Syria to Crimea. Iran wants to export more oil. Russia wants the leverage of the oil supply to distribute to Europe through the the Crimean choke point. Russia also needs the economic boost.
The POTUS wants a military strike option on Iran's oil production and nuclear facilities without fear of Russian retaliation. He needs to marginalize Russia in the ME.
Lots of moving parts, but the first order of business is to develop a normalized working relationship with Russia, i.e. limit Russia's options and satisfy their economic need while positioning the US to economically break them.
Not sure how this is going to play out, but looking at this through the lens of an SF mission to pacify a hostile area, the first thing I'm going to try to do is co-opt the village bully (Putin) to my side.
I sense a big picture strategy here and Donald Trump, like Reagan was, is the front man to a grander plan. In fact I see a lot of similarities to the way in which we effected the breakup of the Soviet Union under Reagan.
Thoughts??
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Is the strategy short term nice-nice with Putin in order to long-term starve him of influence/control over joint monopoly energy market dominance?
I always thought the least known victory in the Cold War(besides imploding the Warsaw Pact via non kinetic UW with Solidarity) was Reagan playing hardball on day 1 to stop recession hurt NATO from buying cheap energy from its main enemy the Soviet Union.
While the Cold War was decisively won, few realised Cold War Season 2 started immediately after, and despite Russia being horribly crippled and humbled for most of the last 25+ years, Russia did eventually gain huge ,arkwt share of the Western European energy market.
Which means massive amounts of hard cash and geopolitical influence that has only been temporarily held back by currently low energy prices.
I always thought the disaster that became of Libya(which seems "easy", relatively speaking, from a map reconnaissance standpoint to achieve elusive stability over a very well located, very high quality source of proximate energy) was a key strategic energy alternative to a Putin energy cartel attempt.
Russian games in Venezuela were surely about more than some much needed arms sales and also about building an alternative(under a Russian nuclear umbrella) to a US dominated global system.
Wouldn't Russian attempts to cozy up to Turkey also substantiate an attempt at a Russian energy cartel? This is despite the long history of Russian/Turkish antagonism and hatred.
But if Turkey is going full retard islamic(truly frightening indicator as the only successful, modern, non energy based Muslim economy with rising quality of life and standard of living....going non secular against progressive develop,net theory), the EU refuses Turkish entry, and US relations have been strained since 2003 and Erdogan going non secular...what options are there?
Is a Turkish/Russian nexus that hard to believe after Putin doing a deal with Kadyrov in Chechnya?
Russia's economy is a disaster and a one trick energy pony. Why not use the ashen remains of their crumbled Soviet Union empire to build an energy cartel to supplant OPEC.
But beyond Russia's failing economy, it's also suffering from failing demographics, ultimately under pressure from not only China(Siberia encroachment & resource exploitation), but also Islamic "terra forming" demographics.
In the micro sense(multi-year) I feel Russia needs a bit of a punch in the face....preferably in private...to disrupt their attempt at a competing system....that game needs to end.
In the macro sense(multi-decade) I feel Russia is a needed partner in the eternal war against a far bigger and more dangerous enemy in the form of the glacial slow "terraforming" of incongruent Islam.
Chess versus checkers indeed!
But if my analysis/argument has any validity, how do you discretely punch a chess player in the face, learn how to team up and play chess on the same side as the person you just punched in the face, then partner to destroy the main enemy.
Is that like Star Trek 3D chess?
Because I'm getting confused at the complexity of the micro opposition and macro alignment of interests.
I think some good whiskey might help me.