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I wonder if it's too late in a way.
Looking at how IS is getting hammered hard, the downside is where do the foreign fighter cockroaches who survive scatter to once the white phosphorus lights go on?
Back home?
I reckon there's a fairly good chance we could see some Paris type attacks happening again this summer in Europe as well as in Asia(Indonesia/Philippines) via IS foreign fighters running home via ratlines.
And while the US has managed to mostly avoid it via quiet hard work by a few and the luck of geography, I don't think this will last forever.
I'm no insurance actuary(but I reckon it would be pretty cool to hire some actuaries to run numbers of terrorist attack risk), but I like thinks simple:
IS is on the back foot, but in possession of considerable financial resources, considerable numbers of foreign fighters(made it there, gained skills, and can make it home via ratlines), and non-permissive havens to plan/train for foreign fighters returning home operations.
Combine that with a porous southern US border where it's not just drug money but human trafficking money(illicit ratlines) combined with dangerously politicised federal border policy.
Risk of a successful attack goes up for the US.
Cause/effect.
Unintended consequences....turn on the white phosphorus lights, and the cockroaches head home to Europe and Asia....hopefully not the US....but I reckon the risk of a high profile attack or two this Summer would surely be going up.
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