Thread: Powerball
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Old 01-11-2016, 15:12   #11
Sdiver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (1VB)compforce View Post
http://www.powerball.com/pb_contact.asp

Unfortunately I am one of those people who enjoy statistics ( a sadist) and likes to figure out just how low my odds of winning actually are (doubly sadistic)


the formula for the first five would be
n!/r!(n-r)! where n is the number of balls (69) and r is the number of draws (5)

or

69!/5!(69-5)!

which is

~1.711e^98/120(~1.2688e^89) = 11,238,513

that e^98 is meant to mean "times ten to the 98th power" but adding exponents to the text didn't work so I used the shorthand. It does not mean e where e=~2.7

Then you have those odds times the number of power balls (26)

11238513 * 26 = 292,201,338

at $2/ticket it would cost $584,402,676

A more important statistic is EV (Expected Value) which tells us what the value of a ticket really is. In the real, non-lottery, world you use this to figure out what the right price for a gamble is (or how many Powerball tickets to buy to maximize your return). Poker players use it to figure out how much to bet on a given hand.

Here's a pretty good explanation of EV as it relates to Powerball:

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/d...mugs_game.html
Fuck it ... I'm moving to Kentucky.
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