Only one question needs to be asked and answered.
Q. Who gains from this?
Certainly not the Pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Even if they recovered an SA-11 BUK from the Ukrainian Army why shoot down an unidentified high altitude aircraft? An "accident" like this kills any hope of success.
Ukraine - possible, it brings in NATO/EU/US support to win the conflict and secure the airspace to pound the crap out of the rebel forces without the continued Russian Air Force support. Anything more is an escalation of East/West involvement.
Russia - possible, it forces the airspace to move north and south back over Russian controlled airspace. Clearly a win-win for Russia. Otherwise it's a dumbass move to continue support for Eastern Ukraine - unlikely!
The party that benefits the most "if intentional" is Ukraine. They have the capability and the weapon system used. (They were also first to cast a stone and supposedly provide "proof" of pro-Russian separatist envolvment.)
My bet is on Ukraine to purposely shoot down this particular airline. Don't have look further than the passenger manifest and the owner of the plane.
JMO
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