Quote:
Originally Posted by Brush Okie
What are the chances of something like this morphing into something that has a higher infectivity rate? I understand viruses tend to adapt over time sometimes quickly. Is it holiweird fantasy to think this may turn to something that is worse?
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I'm not a virologist nor a gene jockey, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
So my short answer is - "I don't have a f'n clue"
My guess is though, it's going to be a rare event and hard for this virus to naturally mutate. I say that because their is no driving force to do so and there are fewer opportunities. We are talking about a zoonotic disease that is quite well adapted to its primary host. A deliberate contact (monkeys as a food source) with a closely related species was the only reason Ebola emerged in humans. This is not at all like a swine or avian virus adapting to an unrelated species to find a new host.
Of greater concern to me is the intentional mutation to make Ebola transmissible via the airborne route, to survive outside a host for longer periods of time, increase the prodromal period (lag time between infection and outbreak of symptoms), etc.
There are folks operating in this AO that would have such intentions and could acquire the capability. That's the greater threat IMO.