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The numbers I've read on Afghanistan's economy seem to show a REAL economy of approx $2 billion in genuine government revenue for spending, with an additional approx $14 billion in foreign aid/assistance spent annually.
I just do not see how Afghanistan's government revenue will grow at a rate fast enough to counteract a significant decline in foreign aid/assistance.
A big factor in that would be how much of that money has been going straight to Dubai...I'm guessing the worse the corruption the lower the impact of declining foreign aid as the money never got properly injected into the local economy in the first place.
But still.....even with rampant corruption, a decent chunk of that foreign aid drying up that WAS partially injected into the local economy will likely lead to an economic depression/convulsions/seizures which is a poor diagnosis for a 1st world country with good security and stability, but a death sentence for a country with extremely poor security and stability.
I haven't been to Afghanistan in nearly a year, but heading back again shortly.
My last time in Kabul it appeared(anecdotally) that things such as real estate prices/rentals were beginning to plummet.
It will be interesting to see how places like Herat and Mazar hold up(or don't) and if they go the way of city-states within the "country" of Afghanistan.
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