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mugwump · 11-06-2013, 18:44

GratefulCitizen is already starting his planning at the tribe level. He and I are in agreement. Now my <Ctl><V>.

First things first: Is the scenario credible? Could it all come down around our ears? My conclusion after considerable research is yes, it is possible, even probable if we stay on our current trajectory. I believe the financial, manufacturing, and logistical systems have become so complex and interdependent--and the social systems so degraded--that it’s only a matter of time before a Black Swan event (e.g. major bank failure, currency re-issuance, credit collapse, coronal mass ejection, pandemic) provides the butterfly-wing flutter that brings the whole thing down. When might it happen? Who knows…might be this December, might be 2024, might be never if we get our act together.

Next for consideration: How long until things get back to normal after a grid-down event? I think the only reasonable answer is “never”. I’m seeing predictions, which seem credible to me, of irreparable and mortal damage to the human, financial, technological, and supply chain resources necessary to maintain the grid, communications, water and sewage, transport, and financial systems within ten days of a major event. Slower events, like a pandemic, would unfold at their own pace until a tipping point was reached (or not, we’ve seen the danger approach and recede before). Then the same ten-day chain of self-reinforcing financial and supply chain contagion would lead to a collapse down to a level that is sustainable within the new reality of reduced capacity at every level of the system. . [See this study for the potential impact of a financial event http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...f_Korowicz.pdf and this for a pandemic http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...-pandemic2.pdf. I’ve cited similar studies by Swiss Re, the U of Chi and U of MI in the Pandemic Flu thread. Also look up The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter. There are free PDFs all over the net.]

The challenges in a grid-down environment will be immense. Short-term requirements will include food, water, shelter, sanitation, medical care, security, and social organization (Who’s the boss? What are the laws? What is your strategy for negotiating/merging with other groups? What’s your overarching ethical approach?). Long-term requirements will be the same but will be even more challenging as the pre-crash remnants are consumed or destroyed in the inevitable chaos.

I think the only reasonable hope for survival will be to create, or join, increasingly sophisticated polities that trace the path of historical social development: clans, bands, tribes, chiefdoms, kingdoms, and states. I believe that the good guys and bad guys will follow generally similar trajectories (up to a point, predators will need to evolve to get past the chiefdom stage) when it comes to social organization. If you encounter bad guys with a more sophisticated level of organization, i.e. if your group is a clan and you encounter a predatory tribe, you will be destroyed or assimilated, with all that historically entails for you and your family. Bad ju-ju.

The current challenge involves the formation of a stable extended family or clan. While important in the earliest stages of a collapse, it’s my belief that no matter how well you organize yourself at that level you’re facing ultimate destruction if you stay there for more than a short while. Personally, I’d skip that level and move directly to organizing at the tribe level (local town/community). With several hundred potential foot soldiers for patrolling/defense and additional hundreds that can be directed toward growing food and securing resources your chances of survival improve exponentially. That way you’re much more likely to have a doctor, a lawyer, hopefully farmers and experienced gardeners with canning expertise, maybe a veterinarian, short-term access to heavy equipment, fuel, and materiel for engineering effective defenses, maybe even a farrier or an old coot/hobbyist with blacksmithing experience, etc. You’re also going to have to deal with existing local politicians, from mayors and chiefs of police to self-important little-pond bigwigs—all who think they should have a say once a forum for their opinions is established. The more things change…well, you know.

This is going to involve Civil Affairs and FID/UW in equal measures if any of us are to get out of this alive. My guess is 50% of your tribe won’t make the first anniversary of the crash even if things go really well. Still better than being taken down piecemeal by one or two roving bands.

Sorry, long-winded as usual. This doesn’t change the importance of membership selection as laid out in the original Reaper Challenge it just changes the scale. I’ll go over my thoughts on refugee selection and vetting, internal tribe organization, etc. in a separate post.

11-06-2013, 18:44	#15
mugwump Area Commander Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,403	GratefulCitizen is already starting his planning at the tribe level. He and I are in agreement. Now my <Ctl><V>. First things first: Is the scenario credible? Could it all come down around our ears? My conclusion after considerable research is yes, it is possible, even probable if we stay on our current trajectory. I believe the financial, manufacturing, and logistical systems have become so complex and interdependent--and the social systems so degraded--that it’s only a matter of time before a Black Swan event (e.g. major bank failure, currency re-issuance, credit collapse, coronal mass ejection, pandemic) provides the butterfly-wing flutter that brings the whole thing down. When might it happen? Who knows…might be this December, might be 2024, might be never if we get our act together. Next for consideration: How long until things get back to normal after a grid-down event? I think the only reasonable answer is “never”. I’m seeing predictions, which seem credible to me, of irreparable and mortal damage to the human, financial, technological, and supply chain resources necessary to maintain the grid, communications, water and sewage, transport, and financial systems within ten days of a major event. Slower events, like a pandemic, would unfold at their own pace until a tipping point was reached (or not, we’ve seen the danger approach and recede before). Then the same ten-day chain of self-reinforcing financial and supply chain contagion would lead to a collapse down to a level that is sustainable within the new reality of reduced capacity at every level of the system. . [See this study for the potential impact of a financial event http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...f_Korowicz.pdf and this for a pandemic http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...-pandemic2.pdf. I’ve cited similar studies by Swiss Re, the U of Chi and U of MI in the Pandemic Flu thread. Also look up The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter. There are free PDFs all over the net.] The challenges in a grid-down environment will be immense. Short-term requirements will include food, water, shelter, sanitation, medical care, security, and social organization (Who’s the boss? What are the laws? What is your strategy for negotiating/merging with other groups? What’s your overarching ethical approach?). Long-term requirements will be the same but will be even more challenging as the pre-crash remnants are consumed or destroyed in the inevitable chaos. I think the only reasonable hope for survival will be to create, or join, increasingly sophisticated polities that trace the path of historical social development: clans, bands, tribes, chiefdoms, kingdoms, and states. I believe that the good guys and bad guys will follow generally similar trajectories (up to a point, predators will need to evolve to get past the chiefdom stage) when it comes to social organization. If you encounter bad guys with a more sophisticated level of organization, i.e. if your group is a clan and you encounter a predatory tribe, you will be destroyed or assimilated, with all that historically entails for you and your family. Bad ju-ju. The current challenge involves the formation of a stable extended family or clan. While important in the earliest stages of a collapse, it’s my belief that no matter how well you organize yourself at that level you’re facing ultimate destruction if you stay there for more than a short while. Personally, I’d skip that level and move directly to organizing at the tribe level (local town/community). With several hundred potential foot soldiers for patrolling/defense and additional hundreds that can be directed toward growing food and securing resources your chances of survival improve exponentially. That way you’re much more likely to have a doctor, a lawyer, hopefully farmers and experienced gardeners with canning expertise, maybe a veterinarian, short-term access to heavy equipment, fuel, and materiel for engineering effective defenses, maybe even a farrier or an old coot/hobbyist with blacksmithing experience, etc. You’re also going to have to deal with existing local politicians, from mayors and chiefs of police to self-important little-pond bigwigs—all who think they should have a say once a forum for their opinions is established. The more things change…well, you know. This is going to involve Civil Affairs and FID/UW in equal measures if any of us are to get out of this alive. My guess is 50% of your tribe won’t make the first anniversary of the crash even if things go really well. Still better than being taken down piecemeal by one or two roving bands. Sorry, long-winded as usual. This doesn’t change the importance of membership selection as laid out in the original Reaper Challenge it just changes the scale. I’ll go over my thoughts on refugee selection and vetting, internal tribe organization, etc. in a separate post. __________________ mugwump “Klaatu barada nikto”
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