Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper
I disagree.
This is the little kid, running his big mouth. He isn't going to start the fight after all of the threats, while we are ready and watching his every move. This is all posturing, IMHO.
He is going to wait till this has all returned to normal and then, out of the blue, WHAM!
I agree that the North cannot take the South, but what will the South pay them to stop after an hour or two of watching Seoul get pasted?
TR
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Isn't North Korea pretty much Tony Soprano with national sovereignty and a poopy homemade nuke?
Looking back at incidents like the Pong Su lend evidence to the fact that North Korea is a narco-criminal nation state.
And instead of having the criminal prosecutor on payroll and compromising photos....it has a 1st gen nuke.
I agree largely with CSB, bar swapping Idi Amin with Quaddafi.
Idi Amin pissed in his own punch bowl by invading Tanzania.
Qaddafi started kitten fights with Egypt and Chad(even had a hand in trying to prop up Amin in Uganda) and funded pretty much anyone who called themselves a terrorist or freedom fighter.....but he managed to stay in power circa 40 years......that's a Pro Bowl level of dictatorial longevity.
Anywho....here's my take:
20-15 years ago:
North Korea rattles the sabre and everyone jumps to pay them off. Why? It's the start of the Dot Com tech bubble/boom.....no one wants to upset the apple cart....there's too much money to be made...so pay the extortion bill.
15-10 years ago:
North Korea rattles the sabre and everyone jumps to pay them off. Why? The Dot Com tech boom busted, but the property bubble/boom is well underway and no one want to upset the apple cart....there's too much money to be made...and 9/11, Afghan, Iraq makes an NK distraction too big a bowling ball to swallow with the rest....so pay the extortion bill.
10-5 years ago:
North Korea rattles the sabre and lights off a nuke. North Korea is also getting busted for running drugs, counterfeiting, and god knows what else. The equities markets are dead(bar commodities), the property bubble is a dead man walking, Afghan/Iraq are hoovering up military resources and national treasure, inflation is ramping up, and financial instability/shockwaves are looking likely. People are no longer worried about NK possibly ruining the party, we're now worried about NK stupidity tipping us into a financial black hole.
TODAY:
North Korea regime transition and sabre rattling. The world is financially F***ed. There is NO hope of a quick financial recovery. There is a DESPERATE need to reboot both the US and the global financial system thru radical change. There is NO appetite for comprehensive bipartisan majority supported domestic reform. And there's even less global consensus on global financial reform.
The change in circumstances between today and 5,10,15,20 years ago is significant.
I believe we are no longer in an environment where we feel we have too much to lose, I believe a Machiavellian option is changing from highly unlikely to at least the realm of possibility.
If North Korea was a spark for a regional conflict(same with Pakistan), it could present an opportunity for the US to leverage its unprecedented force projection capability before it inevitably attrits over time due to financial unsustainability.
While the US is a mess right now....it is a highly flexible mess. While China might best be described as a bit like some forms of steel....strong.....but inflexible and at risk of shattering.
Both a North Korean and Pakistani sparked regional conflict could see China getting sucked into it.
In both cases, in the past, the US would be very quick to step in de-escalate conflict risk....as it WAS in US best interest to do so.
Is it STILL in the US strategic best interest to de-escalate conflict risk between North and South Korea and Pak-India?
In geopolitical chess, would an act of omission(US choosing not to de-escalate or acting too slowly to de-escalate conflict risk) rather than an act of commission possibly see China sucked into a regional conflict, increase risk of China shattering, and see the US whole and still in the driver's seat for what comes next as well as the excuse for comprehensive and aggression reform?
Although the risk of comprehensive reform going against the grain of what most on this forum would prefer would be quite high with the current administration.
Never let a good crisis go to waste X one million.