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Originally Posted by Flagg
Where I think I'd disagree is on campaign finance polluting it and preventing many/most of the good folks from getting into the positions they need to be.
To be a bit clearer on my point of an SME "mashup" being able to predict the next crisis......maybe I could use East Africa as an example.
If you put a few guys from ODAs with a wealth of experience in East Africa , an Ag/farming specialist who know the region, someone who knows how the Nile river system works, someone who knows forestry and the Mau forest, a regionally focused economist, a regional specific meteorologist, a demographer, and a career diplomat or spook with regional time in service, my guess is they'd be able to figure out plus or minus 12 months when a war will cook off, or a famine, or a revolution, or ??
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That is already done, and very closely monitored globaly. In fact there isn't much guessing involved, IMO. You don't have to guess when a war will break out, or famine or anything. The lines in the sand are drawn. Merely understanding those lines, when and where to cross them and you have one or all of those. The countries that are unstable and ready to cook off are more at risk, and a huge difference in comparison from the USA, again IMO.
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I guess the point I was trying to make is that while a lot of those individual SMEs can be found if you look hard enough on the net or in person.....getting them all together in the same room seems limited largely to national intelligence services as far as I can tell.
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I think it is more multi-level, intelligence services being one portion.
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Lots of folks looking at change in Egypt possibly resulting in a future showdown with Israel....but we are not hearing anything about the real risk of future conflict over Nile River resources as nations collide.....maybe the next inevitable East African drought/famine could cascade into a regional war over water.
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I think there are a lot more pressing issues in that region, far beyond Egypt and the Nile river.
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Sorry for going off topic or around in circles.....but the thread topic of drought and higher food prices has me thinking about what the 2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects might very realistically be.
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It is simple, should the drought go on long enough, food prices will continue to climb...the last figures I heard were in the order of 3-4%, and slightly higher in restaurants. This expected in the next 5 or so months. Beyond that food and water will be brought into regions that cannot sustain their own, much like the current system in use today, which brings food and water into stores. The biggest hit will be to agriculture to include farming and livestock, and those in that business. That will comeback. Not the first droughts this country has faced.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl
A very different solution to that which second and third world countries would utilize. I don't think we would be close to any kind of "Mad Max" apocolypse, which seems to me something that you might be trying to work into the equation. Anyways, just my own thoughts and observations.