How The Pending Defense Cuts Could Play Out
ArmyTimes, 3 Dec 2011
Part 2 of 2
“Naval and air forces will grow increasingly important in the future strategic environment,” the CNAS report said. “As a result, the Pentagon should prioritize these forces and not distribute the expected defense cuts evenly across the services.”
Those forces have already been cut to the bone. The number of ships has been cut by nearly half and the Air Force has parked 2,500 planes in the boneyard since Operation Desert Storm in 1991. The Navy also has cut 50,000 sailors in the past nine years. The Army cut six divisions following the first Gulf War. But a return of the Pacific theater to the forefront of future strategies has placed renewed emphasis on the air-sea team.
Gen. James Thurman in October described the Pacific region, which is home of some of the world’s largest militaries and economies, as “key to U.S. security and prosperity.” Thurman is commander of United Nations Command, ROK/US Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces Korea. Across that border stands North Korea. It possesses the world’s fourth largest military, 70 percent of which is on the demilitarized zone — something Thurman called “a no-kidding threat.”
North Korea also has made significant progress on the construction of a new nuclear reactor. The “six-party talks” have worked to find a peaceful resolution to security concerns arising from this nuclear weapons program, but leadership of four of the six will change or be challenged in 2012, adding to regional instability.
North Korea has 11,000 underground facilities and the world’s largest artillery force, which boasts 13,000 systems, Thurman said. Its 60,000-strong special operations force is the world’s largest. While U.S. ground forces are there to deter and defend, current strategy puts a greater emphasis on advanced technologies and air superiority.
Just around the corner is the People’s Liberation Army of China. With 3 million members, it is the world’s largest military force. More than two-thirds are ground forces, but it is the PLA Navy that is catching the attention of many defense strategists.
An August 2009 Office of Naval Intelligence report calls the submarine force a “primary thrust” of Chinese naval modernization.
Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, in his February 2010 report, “Why AirSea Battle?” said China will double the number of Navy subs at its current pace. Those subs can fire anti-ship cruise missiles (many while submerged) and long-range, wake-homing torpedoes. This matters because the nation that controls shipping lanes controls commerce and economies.
China also is building a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, according to a report by congressional analyst Ron O’Rourke. The Chinese SSBN is expected to be armed with 12 ballistic missiles with a range of nearly 4,000 nautical miles. That means they could hit Alaska from protected waters close to China; the western half of the 48 states from mid-ocean locations west of Hawaii; and all 50 states from mid-ocean locations east of Hawaii.
Pay And Benefits?
There is one more way the Pentagon can save a significant number of weapons and personnel even amid this “doomsday” scenario, but it is a tough pill to swallow.
The CNAS cuts did not include any changes to pay and benefits, but they are likely to take a hit. Pay raises are on the top of that list.
Federal law requires service members to receive a raise at least equal to the national average, known as the employment cost index. But don’t expect anything more than that in coming years.
Service members have enjoyed unprecedented boosts to benefits and pay raises above the national average every year since 2004. As a result, service members are better compensated than 80 percent of civilians of comparable age and education when tax-free cash allowances for housing and food are included, according to DoD personnel statistics.
A service member’s total compensation is doubled when noncash or deferred benefits such as retirement pay, health care and veteran’s benefits are added. These benefits boost the total compensation for a civilian worker by only one-third.
That is why the Pentagon and Senate in 2010 balked at an effort by the House Armed Services Committee to bump the military raise to 1.9 percent, half a percentage point higher than the 1.4 percent ECI. The Pentagon and Senate have voiced opposition because the proposal would cost $367 million in fiscal 2011 and $2.4 billion over five years.
Health care also is under scrutiny. Those costs ran $50.7 billion in 2011 — nearly one-tenth of the total defense budget. Health care costs in the past decade have grown by 85 percent in real terms, according to the CNAS report. Because the force is older than in previous years, and more likely to have spouses and children, that cost is expected to double again by 2028. Benefits could carry a cumulative $1 trillion price tag in 30 years. Unlike Social Security, there is no “lock box” for this unfunded line item.
Making changes to Tricare is on many agendas in Washington. Raising premiums for Tricare Prime has been postponed time and again, but is increasingly likely in coming years. These have not increased since the program was launched in 1995, though the cost to the military has tripled, from $4,000 to $12,000 per family in the same period.
Tricare for Life has become another hot-button issue. Military leaders and lawmakers with whom Army Times spoke were adamant that the program must continue for current service members and retirees — but they aren’t convinced this is a benefit future service members will see.
Many who are staggered by the $10.9 billion Tricare for Life price tag for 2011 also question whether the program can be restructured to cut costs. They point to a 2007 Rand Corp. study that said three in four military retirees can get health insurance through a civilian employer or other group plan, but only half do so. The rest rely on Tricare, which means the Defense Department foots the bill.
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/1...ay-out-120311/