Thread: Saudi Arabia
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Old 02-09-2004, 13:32   #6
Airbornelawyer
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That site, the Saudi-U.S. Relations Information Service, is a pro-Saudi site (some would call it a shill, but that is not really an argument per se). There are also some UK-based anti-Saudi sites (some of which go so far as to refuse to call the country Saudi Arabia, as that in their minds legitimizes the House of Saud). Also, if you want a synopsis of Robert Baer's thesis, read this May 2003 Atlantic Monthly piece: http://foi.missouri.edu/evolvingissu...useofsaud.html

There are some good resources on Saudi politics and related topics, but few are dispassionate. I would suggest getting a good base of knowledge through a more objective source like a Library of Congress' database of the US Army Country Studies/Area Handbook Program. The Saudi Arabia Area Handbook is dated as of December 1992, so some of the current events information is outdated, but the historical background, geography, social and ethnic composition, etc. are still accurate. Even most of the economic and governmental information is still accurate, given the conservative nature of the Kingdom. It doesn't have anything about the Consultative Council, or Majlis al-Shura, which was created in 1993, but that body is relatively powerless anyway. The area handbook is here: http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/satoc.html

Because of the study's timeframe, it does not effectively address the most important issue regarding the Kingdom, which is the demographic timebomb. Saudi Arabia has been pushing a policy of "Saudi"ization of its workforce, expelling or reducing the number of foreign workers and encouraging Saudis to take jobs they previously did, and also encouraging growth in the non-oil production sector, with requirements for Saudi employment. This policy has had mixed success.

The policy is imperative, however, because of the demographic problem. Saudi Arabia has had a phenomenal population explosion (not surprising given the absence of contraception, legal polygamy, and the example of King Abd al-Aziz, who had some 45 sons). The growth rate is estimated by the CIA to be 3.27% (compared to 0.92% in the US and a world average of 1.17%). The median age for males is 20.9 years (for the US, it is 34.5 years). Median ages around 20 are far more typical of Third World countries. Also, 42.3% of Saudi Arabia's population is below 15 years old (twice the US proportion), so the problem is only getting worse. There are literally thousands upon thousands of Saudis in their teens and early twenties with absolutely no prospects, but who have been raised with the expectation that prosperity was their birthright.

It is these purposeless and alienated Saudis, inculcated as well with the extreme Wahhabi interpretation of Islam, who were and are the fertile recruiting ground for al-Qa'ida. They are also, ironically, among the Arabs most familiar with the West, as many young Saudis go away to school, especially in the US (the Saudi government has more US Ph.D.s than the US government). But like Sayyid Qutb in an earlier era, they return despising the West for its "decadence" and despising the regime for its alliance with the West.

This simmering discontent is, if not ignored, underestimated by too many Western analysts focusing on the shifting power relationships in the royal family. Like Kremlinologists of old, they pore over press releases and photos of national events, receptions for visiting dignataries or trips abroad, searching for signs of who is "in" and who is "out" based on proximity to the King or Crown Prince. All of that divination may be a waste of time if the whole royal family ends up in exile or dead.

Next installment: I waste your time. Lrd mentioned the Foreign Affairs piece on the tensions between Crown Prince Abdullah and Prince Naif. I will tell you more than you ever wanted to know about the whole royal family power structure (albeit not nearly as much as you can find if you dig out there).

Dave
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