Quote:
Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen
Mexico is competing with Canada for a share of the diminishing US market.
As Canada's pruduction costs decline, Mexico can't compete.
Mexico has the smaller economy which depends heavily on oil exports to the US.
Variations of economic behavior in Mexico have a minor effect on the US, but variations in the economic behavior of the US have a major effect the other way.
The decline in oil production on a field has a large economic component; it's not just limited by physical constraints.
Oil will not be produced if it can't be sold for a profit.
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Exactly. So in keeping with the premise of the thread originator's thoughts about the fading Mexican oil supply (the cause in this context is largely immaterial to the threat context) - and the cause-and-effect-induced-threat the fading revenue has on the stability of the Mexican State, there is widespread concern across a broad spectrum of analyst circles regarding the impact this declining oil revenue will have on the stability of Mexico's government and the nation as a whole. Especially in the context of having to deal with a hyper-violent narco-insurgency.
So, back to the topic of “Mexico’s Fading Oil Output” and what it means for the worsening naro-insurgency situation in Mexico. Canadian oil output is immaterial in the final analysis of the real and present danger in Mexico due to their fading revenue stream from oil. Canadian output is not a factor that can or will be changed in order to help Mexico. It is what it is. These things have a synergistic effect. And of course the effect of situation for the United States cannot be ignored.
With Mexico being a comparatively poor nation, with low-paid government personnel, military and LEO's to begin with, it's going to make it harder for them to deal with the problem. Bribery is systemic.
The border nation to our south in the throes of a now hyper-violent narco-insurgency that is getting worse. It is expanding not only across America but extending its outreach on a global basis with international crime syndicates to include Islamo-based organizations such as the Iranian backed Hezbola, European, Asian and African drug lords and organizations. Recently testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs laid this out in detail for anyone who cares to read it
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/fara101211.pdf There is also a video of the briefing for anyone who is into wonk on a subject of what is really amounting to a 5th column threat.
There is no escaping the fact that fading Mexican oil output is a major concern adding fuel to the potential perfect storm of narco-insurgency occurring in Mexico. We won't be able to ignore it for all that much longer. Especially as the situation in the United States deteriorates economically.
Who is going to pony up the money to cover for the decreasing revenue that the Mexican government needs to fight a determined and robust narco-insurgency? The broke United States?
Despite some success with arrests and reduction of naro-traffickers through killings, IMO, the odds of success are getting better by the day that the narco-insurgency is "winning" this multi-billion dollar trade in the long run as Mexico struggles to deal with it. Despite the billions in aid the US has sent. Of course there is always the chunks of American taxpayer cash lost down black holes whenever this occurs.