Is there a crisis coming? I'm confident that is the case. Unfortunately, the timing is unknown - and perhaps unknowable.
If we cut government spending, there will be quite a lot of economic pain. From what I read (Endgame by Mauldin, This Time Is Different, Rogoff) the pain could easily extend over 5 years.
The books I mention above point out that this is not an ordinary recession; rather, it is a balance-sheet problem. We owe too much money. We can default on the debt, inflate our way out of it, or attempt to grow our way out. Historically, the longest crises occur when societies seek to grow their way out (This from Endgame, Mauldin)
So...will the voters choose 5 years of pain in order to produce a strong economy at the end of that time? Will they willingly sacrifice some substantial portion of their previous entitlements? And - will the House hold firm through two election cycles along with the White House doing so through one?
I will be surprised if I see the voters choose economic pain prior to the crisis coming upon them.
And if such a crisis comes? Let us refer to the words of an alumnus of the current administration.
Rahm Emanuel: "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste "
Video of R. Emanuel