That's a lot of electoral votes that Bush could lose. Not to be a pessimist, but right now the election is Bush's to lose.
Bush is ahead by 39 Electoral votes (270 to win) IF he finishes with 271 like last time, Kerry will have 277 for the win. I'm not sure it is mathematically possible for that kind of division to happen, I even doubt it is possible for BOTH candidates to finish with more than 269 votes, but who the hell knows.
I'd love to see Bush continue to hold the lead he has as reflected in the Gallup Poll, but I think it will be closer in the Electoral vote. Some of the polling data shown is a bit dated, and a lot of it is well within the margin of error:
Wisconson polling data is from the last week of August, with 48% Bush, 45% Kerry, and 2% Nader. The Margin is 5%. 3% undecided. Too close to call in my book.
Pennsylvania is 48% / 47% / 0 / 5% with a 5% Margin. Too close to call.
Florida is 48%/ 46% / 2% with a margin of 4%. Not nearly a lock, and dated in the last weeks of August. I hate to say it, but maybe if FEMA doesn't drop the ball, those numbers will change to a wider spread.
In addition, some of the 2000 "Blue States" look like they may change over, if they have not already done so.
This is slightly more current info, and leaves states inside the MoE out of the tally:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm