Quote:
Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer
Please do not post in this thread if you have no military, intelligence or diplomatic background. Two related topics:
1. Does anyone believe that our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have anything to do with the current unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern states? Specifically, are Egyptians and others motivated to seek regime change in part because they saw the Iraqis liberated from Saddam and want the same? If so, does this validate our decisions to depose Saddam, etc.?
2. If Mubarak and others like him are deposed in favor of elected governments, do you think we'll see relatively liberal Western-style regimes or is this just an opportunity for Salafi jihadists to seize power from the resultant power vacuum?
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1. Yes, I have no doubt that many throughout the Middle-East felt they too could benefit from regime change. In part because of the example Iraq, and to a lesser extent Afghanistan has provided. Right now though, with Lebanon and Tunisia's recent examples to look upon, these other uprisings appear to be grass root inspired and spontaneous attempts to force an election process to produce a representative government. Unfortunately, these are not necessarily the desires of the majorities. For example, most Egyptians are not necessarily in search of democracy though they do share some western views such as a strong press, and judiciary. Ultimately extremist groups will make their moves so, what perhaps started out as honest attempts to herald democracies, could backfire on all of us. In Egypt, a recent poll suggest that as many as 65% feel they should live under Sharia Law. This could get really ugly real fast.
More Egyptian poll results
here:
All of this looks extremely bad for Israel. I feel that even best case scenarios, such as if Egypt avoided throwing in with Al Qaeda, would still have Egypt returning to the pre Camp David war footing between Egypt and Israel, now with Egypt armed by the US. Boy, I can't help but feel we're potentially really screwed, and there is NOTHING we can, or are doing about it.
2. Yes and Yes. If this reaches its potential, with moderate Arab nations and all parties vying for control, some may produce Liberal Western-style regimes but, they probably will not last long. There will be much more unrest before anything is settled, especially if the extreme Mullahs have more sway than the moderates, which they likely do. I believe we're seeing the early stages of regime change which could go well at first but, will sooner than later devolve, and not to our liking. The worst part for the US is we have no means to affect and or influence at all how these changes are made. This administration ignored the warnings and was caught completely off guard with the VP, Dept of State, and himself contradicting US policy over whom or what we support. Also, thi administration's Muslim outreach BS has done nothing but show us as weak, indecisive, and out of touch with reality. Incredibly, they even legitimized the Muslim Brotherhood while also throwing Mubarack under the bus, now all our moderate allies are seen as vulnerable. All Sunni moderates are now effectively in the crosshairs. Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt, perhaps Jordan, and Yeman. How long could the other moderates such as the emerites and Saudis hold out if this continues?
Hate to be a killjoy but, game of RISK anyone?....jd