Taliban maybe homegrown entity, but as much as that is do they have the power to rise up from the dust in Afghanistan. Al Qeada is a foreign element operating within a given countries broader - YES.
To look at what is going on in this nightmare within Afghanistan, I think you have to look at the whole “dream”. Not the “two seconds” here or there of the nightmare. I guess you might ask why do people have nightmares? IF you know why then you will know where they are coming from. Yeah yeah I know; psycho mumbo jumbo. Nightmares are associated with anxiety, fear or terror and this is what I feel military leaders and policy makers are looking at. I say, let’s look at why we are having this nightmare of Afghanistan.
Can we stop having them? Will they continue? IF so for how long. I really don’t think we will ever know this answer.
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Originally Posted by bailaviborita
They might- but it is an assumption. Many people (including ISAF, some politicians, and many think-tanks) state it as fact: if the Taliban takeover and/or we leave- AQ will naturally come back, set-up training camps, and resume bombing our cities.
All of those are a chain of assumptions, and many analysts have written that they are bad assumptions- or at least assumptions that are not worth banking the amount of money/troops/and effort we are to make sure they don't happen. There's also the thought that if they DO come back- they'd be more targetable and it would cost us much less, we'd get more of them, and it would be easier to hit them there as opposed to being in Pakistan, Somalia, Indonesia, etc.
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I don’t see this as an assumption of Taliban coming back to Afghanistan if the International community pulls out in full, it will especially happen in every Pashtun area. This is where Taliban has their internal base within Afghanistan now.
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Originally Posted by bailaviborita
But- to get to the main point: I would submit that the Taliban had a very tenuous relationship with AQ and that today they are very different than what they were prior to 2001. They probably wouldn't want to come to power in certain places and then make a group welcome that they know would invite U.S. retaliation and interest. There are many places in Afghanistan that- given the chance- they will fight ANY outsiders- to include AQ. And the Taliban aren't a monolithic entity either- many are local powerbrokers using the Taliban moniker for their own local interests.
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These are my points on why this nightmare is happening now.
In 2002 Taliban ran like the wind, mainly to Pakistan, but also Iran, and to the northern central Asia states. But during 2002 one of the focuses was on, just as the whole world, the near-war between Pakistan and India. Yes a nuclear war, we came pretty close to one. U.S. along with their coalition partners were killing some serious Taliban, but with everyone running to Paikstan, the U.S. IMHO didn’t care about Taliban, they cared about the Al Qaeda elements Arab leadership; U.S. wanted the Al Qaeda Arab leadership running into Pakistan. Al Qaeda Arab leadership controlled and funded and support everything that was going on in Afghanistan, so I really feel the U.S. did not question what Pakistan and Musharraf’s was doing, as long as Pakistan’s Army was cooperating with our (U.S.) principle objectives in catching the Al Qaeda Arab leadership. But during that time period Pakistan IMO really didn’t give a rat’s ass about Al Qaeda they could pawn them up to the U.S. Pakistan was dealing with issues in Kashmiri and internal militant group in and around the Capital. This started Pakistan’s refusal to internal grapple with their homegrown terrorism. But wait, we said that Taliban was a homeground entity already right? Yes we did, but was this the Taliban in Pakistan? IMHO, NO this was not the Taliban. This was one of the many different militants groups set up by the ISI within Kashmiri to deal with India. ISI was setting up these groups for a number of years, no decades. ISI has been working on promoting the Kashmiri cause, the new nuclear program, and promoting the pro-Pakistan Government inside Afghanistan (the Taliban). ISI set up the Taliban to promote the pro-Pakistan Government inside Afghanistan so this entity would be supportive of any causes against India. ISI has set up numerous extremist groups, both in Kashmiri and inside the uncontrolled areas of the FATA and NWFP. Many of these extremist groups, especially in the FATA and NWFP breed into Al Qeada groups or support base. These extremist groups abandoned the ISI for Al Qaeda as these main base of support. ISI change the way they did things in 2003, but that’s a different story. U.S. also kicked off Iraq war in 2003, this changed a lot of what was going on inside and out of Afghanistan.
SO with U.S. not truly caring about the Taliban Leadership flowing into Pakistan in 2003 to 2004; so in turn the ISI gave key Taliban Leadership sanctuary inside the uncontrolled areas of the FATA and NWFP. Afghan refugee camps inside the NWFP and FATA became Taliban and AQ training camps and support hubs. Oh BTW, I have worked inside the FATA and lived with the Frontier Corps and the Pakistani Military Commanders, this is where I get my options. Not just from books and news articles.
Now with this nightmare feeding off this, we come to the next step which I feel is what the ISI is doing within Afghanistan and the undermining of the international community’s efforts. ISI we know set up the Taliban and funded them from their beginnings in the Mid 1990s to today. The feeling is that the ISI was working with and through the Taliban and Afghan Pashtuns. ISI maybe with or without Islamabad knowing, did this because of the link between the two countries. Their tribal link of the Pashtun’s in Pakistan tribal belt of the FATA. In turn Pakistan was turning over and naming many AQ Arabs and non Afghans to the U.S. Government. But what the U.S did with and through the ISI in the 1980s coming back to bite us? Maybe, adding to the nightmares. As you look and read on what Pakistan is doing what and not doing anything within their tribal belt. You can see where we have our nightmares coming from. Since 2004 Taliban has been running training camps inside Pakistan and attacks within Afghanistan were going up. Taliban and Al Qaeda had done their Three R’s (Rest, Refit, Redeployed) from Pakistan and attacked at will in Afghanistan. Taliban likely increase their confidence as they perceive having four key requirements of insurgents — Proxy war (Key Leadership in Pakistan and elsewhere), unlimited manpower (Madrassas), unlimited time, and a safe havens in Pakistan within NWFP - North and South Waziristan and Quetta; from the Madrassas that the ISI fund and help set up. Insurgent funds, that most likely came from other Center Asian states and Arabian Gulf Countries. The arrest of Sheikh Ahmed Saleem, the key planner of the 1998 Embassy bombings in Africa, had provided a wealth of information of how Al Qeada was possible getting their leaders out of Pakistan and support base for action in Afghanistan. But in 2004 we had Dr. A. Q Khan Scandal break, of proliferating nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Focus change for a while due to this.
But how does Al Qeada still have a pull over this, if their key leaders are gone from Afghanistan or Pakistan? Keep in mind what Al Qeada is and what is means. “The Base”, so it has no real home. Looking at Pakistan and Afghanistan as part of the greater Central Asia states, you near to look at the Islamic Movements in and around Afghanistan you can see foreign elements (Central Asia states) come to Afghanistan to be “tested” (IMO). Islamic movements in the Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union are to some points a focus on state and non-state actors or funding for Al Qeada. Key elements are the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) and the movements Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU); are each trying to achieve power in their respective contexts but in very different ways within their given countries. About the same time that the Taliban rose from the dust of the Soviet Army leaving Afghanistan, the same happen to the north. Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) movements both started out in the early to mid 1990s. IRPT in Tajikistan and the IMU and HUT in the Ferghana Valley region of eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; offering different paths to the acquisition of power and somewhat differing views of Islam. IMU is a serious force, incorporating foreign fighters such as Arabs, Chechens, Pakistanis and Afghans, in addition to Tajiks, Uzbeks, and other Central Asian nationalities operating throughout the region. The IMU goal was to first overthrow the repressive regime of Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan and then “liberate” the other countries in the region to create a pure Islamic caliphate in Central Asia. Man this sounds a lot like the goals or aims of Al Qeada. Yep and that is why in the 1990s, IMU received training and support in Afghanistan from Osama bid Laden. Both to bring these groups into current times, I feel that IMU and HUT growing discontent in the Ferghana Valley does not automatically mean imminent regime change in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan or the Kyrgyz Republic. But with the nightmare in Afghanistan growing and IMU showing up in Central to Southern Afghanistan to North and South Waziristan makes you wonder what plans global Al Qeada have for Central Asia States and any regime changes. What in fact are the strategic plans of the U.S. for the entire central Asia States and region?