Quote:
Originally Posted by nmap
China, at this point, can (IMO, YMMV) play a waiting game. Granted, there are some serious economic problems in China. However, the U.S. may be facing a budget crunch. It is, perhaps, worth asking whether the military budget will be spared.
In such a situation, we might have a weaker navy in a few years than we do today. We might also hesitate (a lot) before we risked an expensive carrier. The DF-21D, along with a few other developments that may occur, would surely affect the balance of power.
Here's the problem, IMO - China will be seen as a rising new superpower while the U.S. is perceived to fade. Pax Americana would end. The new balance, whatever it might be, would probably not be favorable to the U.S.
My tentative conclusion - life in the U.S. might become a great deal more austere over the next decade or so.
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IMO-China can indeed wait, if they have a choice. What's curious right now is whether China would come to Korea's aid, or perhaps position for regime change while trying to keep an ally on their border. It is thought that the hardliners would never accept a unified democratic Korea on their border, while there are others who could accept this, especially if it means avoiding a costly military and economic war. Unfortunately, the hardliners still seem to be very much in control.
I do believe that our Navy is so abundantly superior that, as long as our budget issues don’t overwhelm us, we’ll have sufficient deterrent for quite awhile.
As far as our budget goes, DS Gates has made known that there will be cuts, but there are changes under foot to consolidate efforts, unify or eliminate commands, tighten waste and fraud issues and otherwise trim the fat. He's assured the commanders that there will be money for all war fighting requirements and contingencies but who knows what will happen next year.
Finally, I'm also concerned about whether the US is fading and of course, China is on an upward course. I do remember though that during the Carter years, we were also fading dramatically while the Soviets were feeling their oats. Ultimately, we did recover and the Soviets crashed. I can only hope that common sense will prevail and we can avert another downward slide from bringing us down too far....jd