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Old 11-15-2010, 23:22   #18
nmap
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Posts: 2,760
I suspect there are several underlying issues.

The notion of free trade was created circa 1815, and popularized by David Ricardo in 1817. Is free trade really the best approach? I wonder. This is not to say it isn't - but it tends to approach religion in the fervor it generates. There tend to be lots of strong assertions - but I haven't seen much real data.

So - the U.S. and much of the world has embraced free trade. But we didn't start out that way. We protect our industries. Perhaps those more adept with history than I would care to expand on that.

Presently, global wage arbitrage puts the U.S. at a grave disadvantage. It's cheap to hire foreign workers and expensive to hire U.S. workers. So employers have an incentive to do so. With public companies, they are expected to not only maintain earnings, but to increase them - thus creating still more pressure to choose the lower-cost option.

In addition, U.S. consumers tend to want cheap goods. To create goods at the lowest prices, manufacturers must trim wherever they can.

No doubt there are other issues as well. Perhaps diplomacy plays a part, too.

Our national problem is that we have a price structure - and, worse, a debt structure - based on an elevated price/wage level. When we sink to a lower price/wage level...and we will, due to the downward pull of the world labor market....the existing debt will be unservicable. Perhaps we see part of that now?

Will the bond market, particularly the municipal bond market, experience increased risks of default during this structural readjustment? I suspect so.

Bottom line, I think that the embrace of free trade has set off events that were positive for a time, but at the price of subsequent problems. We'll experience those problems for decades to come until global wages come into some sort of equilibrium - or, alternatively, some alternative to free trade asserts itself.

All MOO, YMMV.
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