There are a lot of issues involved here. NATO as an entity is one. With the EU attempting to develop its own military force for those things that are strictly in EU's interest the question of the relevance of NATO is being called into question. When the US draws down its forces it is also drawing down its ability to leverage US interests in the region.
If you look at what is going on now in Europe, their defense spending is being cut back and they are consolidating capabilities to build ships, aircraft, and combat vehicles because individual countries are no longer able to foot the bill for some of the more expensive items. While the US and some European countries are jointly building some items like the Joint Strike Fighter, the loss of US capability in theater will probably drive folks to other countries to develop joint capabilities which might in the long run prevent us from interacting with "allied armies" on the ground because of incompatible systems.
Then there is the intelligence issues, keep your "friends close but your enemies closer". We have already seen shifts in countries interests that have put us at odds. Our friends today may not be our friends tomorrow and probably the best folks to get a good sensing about that are the military folks that are interacting with other military folks. You might be surprised to know what pops up on the radar when a bunch of troops get down and dirty together.
While it might make sense to move some of our troop concentrations out of areas from which it is difficult to deploy or where the threat is minimal and we can get back there if we need to, before we start shuffling them back to CONUS we need to get off our ass and do something about strategic air and sea lift. We have a long way to go on this issue.
Now, I would rather see more troops, albeit, in smaller numbers, in more places for a lot of reasons. One is to play the role of global scouts where that good old soldier to soldier contact is made and information is developed on areas of potential conflict. Call it shaping the battlefield if you want, but we need eyes on target in a lot more places than we currently have them. I guess old habits die hard but I sort of would like to see the world treated as one big area complex.
Enough for now, I feel like I am getting wound up.
Jack Moroney
