Quote:
Originally Posted by nmap
Please see the attached PDF, particularly pages 3-4.
It suggests that certain indicators point to negative GDP growth in the third quarter. For now, we're a safe-haven, since the dollar looks far better than the Euro. How long that favorable condition will last remains an open question.
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Growth is indeed the issue.
If you believe growth is doomed (say, by peak oil
), then it's probably time to fortify against zombie attack.
Don't believe trade balance is the problem (or solution).
In the linked spreadsheet, on "line 74" the "annual" tab, there is a history of our trade balance.
http://www.bea.gov/international/xls/table1.xls
There was a period of adjustment after going to fiat currency.
From 1981-1989, there was a massive trade deficit, yet we were still prosperous.
Much of that deficit was with Japan.
How'd that work out for them, for us?
It's not a zero-sum game.
New wealth is continually being created.
The trade balance improved from 2008 to 2009.
I believe this was a consequence of a bad economy.
Was chatting with a friend about the trade balance issue; he has an interesting point:
If push came to shove, for how much can an F-16 be sold? (the F-16 currency standard)
We have a massive reserve of actual wealth in this country.
IMO, the world is on the downslope of "peak government".
Attempts by any nation to grow government will only result in a shrinking economy.
The solution is simple (though not easy): reduced taxation, reduced government spending (relative to the economy), and a reduction in barriers to trade (internal and external).
There are only two states of nature: growth and decay.