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Arty
Each of the arguments has it's merit and truth. NK has the troop strength to be a problem as well as countless artillery pieces (that Seoul is in range of). IMHO this is just their yearly flex. They always flex during the spring training exercise. The satellite is either a missile test or a harmless communications satellite, it doesn't really matter, either way there is little we will do about it.
War kicks off - Seoul is demolished by artillery fire before we can knock out ALL of the artillery, much of which is dug into the sides of mountains - we put into place the plans that SK/US/NATO have been planning for 57 years - mass refugees - counter insurgency that we honestly can't win.
We can't win a counter insurgency in NK because the people are bred to love Kim Jung Il. When Kim Il Sung died people who had defected years prior still broke down crying. These were people who had the sense and determination to get out of NK and were leading comfortable lives in SK. The entire populace is like this. When aid workers and medical personnel are allowed into NK to do operations like cure cataracts the people drop to their knees and praise "the dear leader" for granting them their eye sight back.
We are too spread out to handle a war on another front. If a war breaks out, NK will have had to have done something on a large scale to provoke full action on SK/US/NATO's part.
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