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Watch the bouncy-bounce!
Matthew Dowd, the Bush/Cheney campaign chief pollster, ginned expectations a month or so ago for the Democratic convention by predicting a 15% bounce for Kerry, calling it a historic average. Some said he was deliberately inflating the bounce so that even if Kerry got a 8-10% bounce, it would be seen as a failure. He was raising expectations to an unattainable level.
Today, Dowd went the other way, lowering expectations to an eminently attainable level. He noted that, "historically," the incumbent gets 2/3rds of the bounce from his convention that the challenger gets from his. 2/3rds of 0 is 0.
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