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This spells big time trouble for Kerry. The person who wins this election will be the person who can win the hearts and minds of independents since both sides are polarized.
The fact that he didn't gain any traction or lost ground during the convention tells me that those who haven't made up their mind weren't impressed with John Kerry's makeover. If Bush gives a strong performance at the RNC convention and handles Kerry in the debates he will win this one going away.
Bare in mind that no war time President has ever lost an election. Kerry hasn't given the public any reason to believe that he will be an improvement. It is shaping up to be a very long fall/winter for the Democrats.
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