http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1155181.html
Iran maneuvering Israel in a show of nuclear strength
By Avigdor Haselkorn
Last update - 21:40 09/03/2010
The central mystery in the Middle East nowadays has little to do with the hit on a Hamas agent in Dubai but with Iran's actions. On February 14, in the presence of IAEA inspectors, Iran moved nearly all its stockpile of low-enriched nuclear fuel to an above-ground plant that Tehran declared will be used to re-enrich the fuel to 20 percent purity. As a result roughly 4,300 pounds of low-enriched uranium now sits vulnerable to destruction from an air attack or even a fire.
U.S. analysts, it was reported, have offered a number of theories for the baffling move ranging from baiting Israel to strike, and thus alleviate Iran's domestic crisis, to a technical screw up. Others speculated Iran is engaged in some sort of diplomatic brinkmanship. By threatening to turn its entire uranium stockpile into near-bomb-grade fuel Tehran hopes to force the United States to reopen negotiations on its terms.
There is, however, another possibility. Accordingly, Iran has concluded that the danger of an Israeli preemption of the Iranian program has been neutralized. Between Israel's fears of the responses from Iran and its allies and Washington's stern objections to an Israeli military undertaking the probability of an attack is virtually nonexistent, or so Tehran may now believe.
The first element in this Iranian assessment, which dismisses the chances of an Israeli attack, must be linked to the new weapons in the hands of Hezbollah. After all, while Israel is supposedly threatening pinpoint attacks on Iranian nuclear targets, the country's enemies can target not only most of Israel's key strategic installations but have openly adopted a strategy of indiscriminate rocket attacks on Israeli cities. Moreover, the recent statements by some of the leaders of the regional radical axis that for the first time openly promised a theater-wide war in case Israel attacks must be seen as another component in Iran's growing conviction that its enriched uranium cache is safe wherever it is located.
The second element in Iran's confident assessment of an American ban on any military action is the seemingly endless procession of U.S. emissaries who have either arrived already in Israel, or are slated to, ostensibly to warn Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against "surprising" Washington. Tehran fully understands that the last thing President Barack Obama wants is a third front on top of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
By publicizing its move Iran in effect threw down a gauntlet, fully expecting Israel not to pick it up and thus lose credibility and standing vis-à-vis its enemies. Israel's inaction would be the final confirmation of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's longtime thesis that -despite having a nuclear weapon and the strongest air force in the region - it is weaker than a spider's web. The Mullahs expect that Israel's display of impotence will elevate the status of Iran and pay handsome dividends both domestically and internationally.
Even if it was not originally conceived as such, by now Tehran must see the vulnerable storage of its enriched uranium as a test of Israel's power and credibility. While former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein often resorted to a strategy of "burning the bridges behind him" to convey his commitment (for instance in 1990, he confirmed some of Iraq's missile capability "so you [Arab brothers] will find no Iraqi excuses when they fail to respond forcefully" to any aggression), Iran is seeking to "burn the bridges" behind Israel.
This has indeed put Israel in a serious strategic bind. If Israel acts, it risks the wrath of America, not to mention the likely response from Iran and its allies. If it does not act, it will be for all to see that Nasrallah's "spider web" thesis is alive and well. At the very minimum, Israel could face new attacks from the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah. At worst, the likelihood of a full-scale war would increase dramatically. Indeed, such is Tehran's new confidence that it is reportedly seeking to instigate another conflict on Israel's northern border to divert Western powers from their efforts to impose tougher sanctions on Iran.
The breakdown of Mr. Obama's policy vis-à-vis Iran is in full view. For if this analysis is correct the next step is surely a formal Iranian decision to build the bomb.
The ball is now squarely in Israel's court
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Avigdor Haselkorn is the author of The Continuing Storm: Iraq, Poisonous Weapons and Deterrence (Yale University Press)