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Approval Ratings
Even with his gains, Bush is not at all strongly rated. His overall job approval rating, as noted, is just 50 percent; only one postwar incumbent with a rating that low or lower has won re-election (Harry Truman in 1948). Forty-seven percent disapprove of Bush's work; it was 51 percent (a career high) last month.
Those who "strongly" disapprove inched down by five points in this poll, moving strong approvers and strong disapprovers back near parity.
Bush gets majority approval for handling just one of six specific issues tested in this poll, the war on terrorism; more than half (53 percent) disapprove on both Iraq and health care.
But more approve than disapprove of Bush's work on another strong second-tier issue, education, 49 percent to 41 percent. And Bush and Kerry are even in trust to handle education. Battling the Democrats to parity on this particular (and once solidly Democratic) issue was central to Bush's success in 2000, and he is holding that ground now.
Probably best for Kerry is a seven-point advance in the strength of his support — 72 percent of his supporters back him "strongly." Bush's support, though, is 88 percent strong.
Eighty percent of Kerry's supporters also say they'll "definitely" vote for him, as do the same number of Bush's. Support for both is much more locked-in than at this time in 2000, when Bush's support was 65 percent strong, Al Gore's, 56 percent. That could make it harder than usual for Kerry to score a sizable convention bounce this week.
Still, 5 percent of Kerry's supporters, and 7 percent of Bush's, say there's a good chance they'll change their minds — more than enough to shift the race dramatically, if they were to move in the same direction.
Beyond strength and solidity, enthusiasm is a third measure of the intensity of a candidate's support, potentially a critical factor in voter turnout. Ninety percent of Kerry's supporters, and 90 percent of Bush's, are enthusiastic. But Bush's are perhaps a bit more so: Forty-nine percent are "very" enthusiastic, compared to Kerry's 41 percent.
Divided Voters
There's a significant gender gap in this race: Kerry has an 11-point lead over Bush among women, while Bush is +15 among men. Bush's support has gained a bit among men in the past month, while women's preferences remained about the same.
Kerry's supported by 87 percent of Democrats, Bush by 91 percent of Republicans — each typically strong in his base. And among independents, the quintessential swing voters, it's a dead heat — 44 percent for Kerry, 43 percent Bush.
White Catholics are another true swing voter group, and here there's been some movement to Bush — from 44 percent support last month to 52 percent now. Kerry, for his part, is doing a bit better among senior citizens, now with a high 59 percent support.
Among registered voters, 34 percent in this poll identify themselves as Democrats, 33 percent as Republicans and 29 percent as independents. Horse-race results are essentially the same among registered voters and among "likely" voters, those who seem most likely to turn out in the November election.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 22-25 among a random national sample of 1,202 adults, including 909 registered voters. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
