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Old 12-24-2009, 14:26   #34
nmap
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Posts: 2,760
I think the real backlash - the one that will compel change - is coming from China. Or, more accurately, from the people that buy our treasury bonds. Keep in mind that as interest rates go up, the cost of paying the debt goes up. An extra 1% on $12 trillion is no small thing - it adds up to $120 billion per year, or (ahem) $1.2 trillion over a decade.

Our national spending contributes to this. Given the structure of the tax provisions, I suppose the supporters of the bill assume that we will cut the deficit, then crank in health care expenses, and that growth will cover the difference. I don't believe that will work.

First, as Kgoerz points out, taxes are already high. As they increase, there is less incentive to earn more money. A pleasant afternoon digging in firing positions might be more attractive than doing something that produces income, and hence more taxes.

Second, the bond market seems to be sending some signals. The potential buyers may be raising eyebrows. (The following charts are the 30 year treasury bond)

Take a look HERE. If the price keeps going down, we will face a need to either raise taxes even more (a lot more), cut spending somewhere, or a combination of the two.

For context, a 20 year history of the 30 year treasury bond is HERE

Notice we've had 20 years of declining interest rates. We've added debt and other commitments to the point that increased interest rates will create some challenges.

By the way - don't expect mortgage rates to remain static. They will tend to go up, too. Which implies that home prices will be under pressure...which puts the value of houses beneath the mortgage value...which puts the banks and pension funds back into trouble...

It's one thing to tell the voters to run along. And quite another to tell the bond market to do so.
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