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Interesting problems!
I guess my perception is that the challenges - especially when one expands beyond nuclear weapons and into other possibilities - are such that a successful action by the bad guys is highly probable.
Back many years ago, a brief course in system safety suggested that one could multiply probabilities. So if we're 99% safe each year, then we only have 90% safety over 10 years. The odds get worse year by year, and also if multiple attempts each year are assumed.
My purely rhetorical question is why the bad guys haven't attacked. I guess one should not question good fortune.
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