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I think that in planning a course of action, one first needs to develop a theory of why matters are presently developing as they are, which in turn suggests the direction of the future. Refinements to the theory should occur as events occur.

I think that ZonieDriver has suggested an optimal path, although my reasons for doing so are substantively different from what I perceive his to be. Thus, our focus should be appropriate political action, combined with suitable preparation. In a sense, our best course of action is to let the situation develop.

A key issue for governments has always been the exercise of control at a distance. We saw the problems involved as Rome sought to control a wide swath of the world. We saw it again when England attempted to maintain control of its colonies. At this point, I will hazard a strong prediction. Our own government, no matter what path it chooses, will face steadily greater challenges in maintaining control of the entirety of the United States. If this premise is true, the central government will face a problem similar to that experienced by Rome. Just because an order is given does not mean that it will be carried out in the provinces. And this will not be because of any particular resistance, but rather because the central government will simply lack the resources to accomplish its objectives.

In making this statement, I recognize that it is the polar opposite of our present experience, and of all of our expectations. Almost everyone alive today in the U.S. has experienced a profound change in the speed of communication and the volume of trade and commerce. We sense a modification of our environment, suppose that those changes will continue indefinitely, and so we extrapolate into the indefinite future. In my opinion, this leads us astray.

First, let us consider where we came from. Let us consider rural Arkansas, sometime around 1934. That's just 75 years ago. At the time, houses in the area did not have electricity or running water. An orange was a much desired gift, available at Christmas, and only one per child. A banana was a rarity. Radios were operated with power from an automobile battery, and were used sparingly to conserve the battery. Notice the immense contrast between our present day life experience and the situation I described. And yet, I know from conversations with living relatives the conditions were as I have described them. So then, why is it that our lifestyle has advanced so greatly in the past 75 years, in profound contrast with the more modest advances during similar periods in the past? Furthermore, can we anticipate that 75 years hence technology, communications, and commerce will have exhibited similar advances?

If one looks carefully, one sees a strong correlation with the availability of abundant cheap energy. By this, I mean abundant, cheap, crude oil. We can see a similar set of advances with the discovery and exploitation of coal. It is worth noting that oil supplanted coal, and that at each step our civilization enjoyed significant advances in prosperity, mobility, and quality of life. For example, we can contrast the range, speed, and power of navies as they transitioned from coal-fired ships to oil fired ships. Likewise, the change from wind-powered ships to coal powered vessels transformed navies.

It has been, and remains, my premise that the availability of cheap and abundant crude oil is in decline. Notice that the United States became an importer of oil in 1973. Consider the development of our economy in the period since that time. Whereas in the late 60s, it was common for one spouse in a family to work, and the other to stay at home, now both must work to maintain their lifestyle. In the era of Eisenhower, we built the interstate highway system, now we struggle to maintain it. We sent multiple missions to the Moon, whereas now we seem to have trouble maintaining the space program at all.

Let's consider military operations in Afghanistan. How practical would it be to maintain that operation if abundant fuel were substantially less available? Could the operations be maintained effectively without abundant support by helicopters, air transport, and ground-based vehicles? Could even the present level of control be effectively maintained if these tools were less available? These are all rhetorical questions. However, we can extend the principle to the issue of the cohesion of our domestic government. It is one thing to pass a law, and it is quite another to maintain its enforcement. As the value of the dollar declines, and as the availability of foreign financing for our debt likewise declines, we might ask where the resources will come from to support extensive enforcement mechanisms and a pervasive bureaucracy. I propose that such control will become steadily less practical, with effective control withdrawing from the peripheral areas over time. Large cities that produce substantial tax revenue will remain under control for quite a while. But the wide swathes of open territory may see steadily reduced activity.

The response to this will probably be higher taxes and some sort of conscription - perhaps for the civilian volunteer corps. However, higher taxes make tax evasion more profitable, and hence can increase corruption. Recall that our system depends on voluntary compliance with the tax code. It cannot easily adapt to pervasive evasion. In addition, unwilling conscripts may not be especially effective.

Could a Zimbabwe-like regime come into being? Perhaps. But without effective control, the various regions seem likely to revert to a quasi-feudal pattern. The local governmental appointee, not the central government, would have the real power. Such a situation suggests approaches I will not speculate on, especially since others here know vastly more than do I.

No matter what the inclinations of various officials might be, I strongly question their ability to carry out their intentions. We might wish to factor in the problems related to a widespread and growing failure of central control as we contemplate the possibilities for abuse of that control. I suspect that some areas will plead for martial law and troops. I don't think we'll have to wait many years to witness it.