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I doubt we will continue our involvement in Afghanistan much longer. In my opinion, we face three problems:

1) A bear market. The preceding bull market lasted 25 years, so the bear market should last 6-8 years. That means that growth, and hence tax revenues, will be under pressure.

2) Peak Oil. Likely to put a long-term drag on growth at the very least.

3) Kondratieff winter. (Included partly seriously, and partly in jest). A persistent economic cycle that lasts about 100 years - if valid, it suggests the next 20-25 years will have little growth.

Our various Presidents will face a choice between building U.S. infrastructure and Afghan infrastructure.

Will we improve our schools, or theirs? Will we maintain Medicare for our aging population, or build clinics there? Will we equip our police, or theirs?

If I were an Afghan, I don't think I would invest in a stereo...