Quote:
Originally Posted by nmap
Yes, I think we will see more ethnic violence. A great deal more.
Sigaba, you are a student of history. Under this scenario, what are the chances that demagogues and radical politics will flourish? If so, does this not increase the likelihood and extent of violence?
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Shortly before Operation DESERT STORM, CNN called Robert Divine, a historian of American foreign relations. Divine was asked what he thought would happen. Divine said "I don't know," and rang off. When it comes to gleaning lessons from the past to forecast the future, I agree with historians such as my former mentor who believe that our craft offers few insights. (And at this point, other former mentors might want to strangle me for not telling 'truth to power.')
I will offer an academic perspective that is informed by my understanding of the historiography of American social history on the one hand and German social history on the other. Many politically radical historians think that left of center radicalism in America is dead. We've joked here about how the president elect is going to make Carter look like Dutch Reagan. In this crowd, there is no difference between the president-elect and Barry Goldwater.
Meanwhile, German historians who have sought to reconstruct the history of everyday life (
alltagsgeschichte) believe that the rise of fascism was due to the atomization of German society. What Hitlerian ideology could not offer to Germans, incompatible promises to divergent economic interests could. (Here, a key difference between Hitler's manipulation of mass communications technology and the president-elects is that the realization that the promises could not be kept did not take hold among Germans until they were huddled in air raid shelters.) Here and now, I am heartened by the fact that too many Americans, even those who voted for the president elect out of party loyalty, understand that the president elect is just another guy, not a savior.
I will offer this question. When we look at our present situation and use historical examples to draw parallels and forecast possible outcomes, are we overlooking the power of the Internet?
An observation. What has become increasingly clear from my time on this board and others is the degree to which living in the L.A. area gives a different (not better or worse, more accurate or distorted, just different) view that many Americans have of many important issues.
I think when some of you take me to task for being too optimistic or not experienced enough, it may be because I see how tense things are in Southern California but that things get worked out in the media, in the community, and in the local governments.
Take for example that appallingly bad decision by two men in West Hollywood to hang in effigy Gov. Palin. It took a while, but eventually the community figured out how bad an idea it was. Area residents eventually led the effort to get that damn mannequin taken down with the help of the city's government. To me, this was an example of people doing the right thing even though the only time West Hollywood has a Republican in it is when someone comes to help friends move. (Someone owes me a six pack of Coca Cola.)
I think that here in L.A., alongside with some intense rivalries, heated debates, deep dislikes, and outbreaks of violence, there's a broader understanding that we have no choice but to work things out.
Thankfully, we have some cultural factors working in our favor. First, is the area diversity. We patronize each others' stores, eat each others' food, rub elbows on mass transit trains and busses, and strive to solve problems in the work place. While we annoy, criticize, scrutinize, and antagonize each other, we also befriend and help each other.
I get really worked up when I think about the economic impact illegal aliens have on the state's economy. I want my tax dollars to help my fellow citizens, not foreign nationals. But as I've no way of knowing if this guy or that gal who helps me is here legally, is a citizen, or is breaking the law. So I have to balance my sense of outrage with my everyday experiences.
Second, is the entertainment industry. Yes, it gets lambasted for its political bias and some of the questionable themes. But in addition to the money that industry brings to the local economy, it also helps to form common bonds of interest. Talking about movies and television programs is a way to get to know someone, how not to push their buttons (or how to push their buttons, if one so prefers), and this information can inform how one talks about other issues.
Third, there are the sports teams, especially the Lakers. Since 1979, that team has been a unifying force here. For better or for worse (probably the latter), the most intense debate in L.A. after the issue of immigration has been who was responsible for the feud between Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
Some, such as the president-elect, whose perspective is informed by theories of human behavior that stress economic considerations, would call such discourse examples of 'false consciousness'. I am of the view that cultural interaction something much more significant.
It is a matter of heated debate among intellectuals, academics, and political strategists of what trumps what. Is it economics? Is it race? How about gender? What about class? Or is it culture? I suppose that we're poised to find out.
What ever it ends up being, or not being, I am confident that our better natures will prevail before we engage in any sustained acts of collective self destruction.