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Old 10-28-2008, 17:59   #44
stuW
Auxiliary
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 69
Prospect Theory

There have been some very interesting points brought up in this forum. I also wanted to state that I was very proud to hear of the successful operation, as I believe it is telling of the abilities of our SOF to be able to act in pure daylight with lightening speed in a complicated, capricious environment and perform the mission. However, I am highly cautious to allow those feelings to impact my decision making - this is not at all to suggest it has interfered with anyone on this forum or in the military. TR made a prior suggestion, if I interpreted him correctly, that my perspective may differ if I had lost a friend to the enemy. This made me think of an interesting theory (prospect theory) that I believe has relevant application to this discussion.

The theory caught several academics by surprise in 2002 when it was awarded the Economics Nobel Prize, as the academics who developed it were psychologists. It currently is being introduced to various social sciences beyond economics, including political science and violence, and appears to provide a new way to explain decisions made by people given their situation. I would be interested in feedback if you are inclined.

In its most basic form, the theory suggests that people tend to normatively value benefit and cost differently - diverging from traditional economic theory - with cost/loss being more impacting to people than gain. This may be a theory worthy of consideration and cognition during decisions when facing potential loss - I imagine this situation may be common in the military. More information is available at the link below, and I do know of some work where it has been applied to political violence if there is interest. I'd be interested in commentary, application or relevant experience if others find it interesting and worthwhile to this discussion...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory

Stu
__________________
"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft."
- Bo Schembechler

"You can’t learn to swim by exercising on the beach."
Ronald Cohen

Last edited by stuW; 10-28-2008 at 18:13.
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