[USANick7]

I like to say that a Democrat needs to be leading in the polls by about 5 points, to feel comfortable that they have a chance. That is just to make up for the Bias.

Go to Real Clear Politics and look at the state by state polls for each candidate.

What you are going to find is very interesting. Almost every state that you would imagine going for Obama is going overwhelmingly for Obama. Every State you would imagine is going for McCain, is going somewhat solidly for McCain.

Then look over to the column on the right which features how the vote actually turned out in previous elections and what you find is a huge skew in favor of the democrat. The one poll democrats have the hardest time manipulating (the actual vote) shows a much different picture.

For instance...a poll might show that McCain is leading in a given state by 5 points. But if you look at what Bush carried it by it will be closer to 8-10.

A poll might show Obama carrying a state like Wisconsin by 7 points, but if you look at what Kerry or Gore carried it with, you find its closer to 1 point.

Now granted, this could be coincidence, but I doubt it. It is actually very encouraging.

It demonstrates that polls tend to inflate the chances of democrats, and down play the strength of republicans. While this is not new to anyone, it is very interesting to be able to go and see it all on one page. I highly encourage everyone to check it out. Its subtle, but there.

You can use the same link Reaper posted, just scroll down for the comparisons I mentioned.