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I saw a statistic the other day that showed Iraqi oil production in April 2003 somewhere around 230K barrels, and April 2004 at over 6 million. While the inability to ship all of it certainly plays a role, isn't Venezuela a much larger contributor to the 'community pot' of crude? I also had read that China's consumption of crude has sky-rocketed lately in response to a growing industrialization in the country (and in Russia, to a lesser extent), creating a much greater demand than has been seen in decades.
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