Quote:
Originally Posted by MeC86
Short article written by former CIA case officer Robert Baer. Might explain why Iran has not been hit yet. Israel might be facing some reluctancy from the US. Either way it goes down, I dont think diplomacy will work in the long run. Israel will act in its best intrests in the end. Hopefully, we are on board with them when it happens.
http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...813706,00.html |
Excellent article - Great insight. Robert Baer has the experience and the understanding to speak with authority. I recommend his book - "
See No Evil."
Here are two possible scenarios to the worse international disaster in modern times. I would welcome critiques on these two scenarios.
Scenario One
- Neither the West nor Israel can launch a strike against Iran without creating an overwhelmingly severe global economic event (see Baer's article) - The U.S. can't because it can't risk its economic life. Israel can't because it needs the U.S. to pull it off. The U.S. not only won't help Israel, but will oppose Israel because a global depression results no matter who attacks - the biggest loser in a possible depression is America. The bigger they are the harder they fall.
- Iran gets the bomb. Perhaps, in 2009 or 2010.
- Iran proliferates to its proxies...2010, 2011, or 2012
- Nuke used on West - In large European or American City...Or, tactical Nuke used on Tel Aviv, Israel...2011 to 2015
- Things go crazy and get quite nasty. World War and Global Depression.
Scenario Two
- Israel anticipates scenario one, that Iran will get a bomb and somehow will get it to Hamas or Hizbullah - the West and America, which has compelling economic interests, will refuse to launch a strike against Iran to prevent them from obtaining the bomb. Israel knows it can't do an adequate job because it needs the U.S. to get it done in a way that ensures that Iran will not get the bomb. Israel knows that the U.S. not only won't help Israel, but will oppose Israel because a depression will result no matter who attacks.
- Israel cannot accept scenario one; since it is too real.
- Israel understands it must attack Iran, even though the hit may be inadquate. The high probability of being hit with nukes, if it does nothing, is absolutely unacceptable.
- Israel concludes its own survival exceeds the needs of the world to avoid a global depression. Historically, Israel knows that every nation on earth has taken turns selling them out - Israel refuses to put itself on the alter to protect everyone else's comfort when their very existence is in play.
- Israel makes a difficult and existential decision - To hit Iran
- Israel hits Iran
- Global chaos and depression ensues
- Israel becomes the enemy of the world - And, now of America, too.
- Then, the real game is on for Israel's survival.
- Iran probably knows all this and thinks - "I win if I get nukes, I win if I don't; either way the rotten corpse of Zionism will perish." Iran thinks, "And, it won't even be by my hand. America loves its Chinese imports and SUVs so much - they'll be ready to do my dirty work. I win if I win, I win if I lose. Little Satan hurts big Satan then Big Satan uses the world to smash Little Satan to pieces. The Big Satan is a fat whore and will destroy anyone or anything that gets in the way of her black blood that keeps her alive - We control her black blood. All praise be to Allah! And, peace be upon his prophet Mohammed. "
My imagination is limited - Are there other scenarios?
Are the two scenarios above relevant?
I also look forward to some comments on Baer's article and the "
United States Being Over a Barrel."....I think he is spot on.
Three Soldier Dad...Chuck